This book studies the impact of Egypt's Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Programme (ERSAP), the effects of which have been of great interest to the international community. Organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF uphold the programme as a success story and example for other countries to follow. ERSAP also has its critics, however, who resent its tendency to downsize government and fear possible negative effects on growth and development. The author discusses these concerns along with those regarding the possible negative social effects of ERSAP.

This paper analyzes the successful Egyptian stabilization experience during the 1990s, focusing on its distinctive features and contrasting them with the recent experiences of other developing countries. The key policy elements were a large fiscal adjustment, use of an exchange rate anchor that has endured for over six years, supported by prudent monetary policies, and early moves to liberalize interest and exchange markets. The outcomes included the avoidance of an output collapse despite the magnitude of fiscal adjustment; avoidance of stresses on the financial system; reversal of endemic dollarization; financial deepening at the expense of the banking system; and maintenance of external viability despite a lackluster export performance.

Raising interest rates is clearly essential to the success of any stabilization and adjustment programs that Egypt undertakes. But to reduce the risks of higher interest rates to its distorted economy, and to increase the benefits, increases in interest rates need to be accompanied by other adjustment measures.