As our species moves deeper into an era in which we have an increasing influence over the climate and health of our planet, it is important to examine the likely effects of our activities as well as the tools we can use to adapt to coming changes. Occupying more land area than any other human activity and employing biological systems vulnerable to extreme heat, agriculture is chief amongst vital industries impacted by a changing climate. Previous work has focused on those impacts, finding potentially drastic effects for countries like the United States, the world's largest producer of maize and soybean, whose major production regions are fortuitously positioned near a climate optimum for those key crops. This dissertation examines various specific practices that could be deployed to build resilience and prevent the degradation of the U.S. agricultural system under potential 21st century climate regimes. Double cropping, crop rotation, cover cropping, and irrigation all have their place as potential adaptations. This work uses mechanistic and statistical models as well as newly available datasets and data processing methodologies to explore the expansion of suitability, the spatial variability, the yield effects, and the temporal trends in adoption of these practices respectively. Chapter 1 runs mechanistic phenological models for winter wheat and soybean under recent and future climate scenarios, finding that even small increases in expected temperature and growing season length can lead to large increases in double crop suitability. These changes in suitability have already been occurring over the last few decades and appear poised to accelerate along with our changing climate. While the increase the area suitable for this cropping practice is large, especially later in this century, the implied increase in agricultural production that accompanies it is substantially smaller than potential yield losses. Building on the first chapter but exploring inter-yearly crop rotation patterns versus intra-yearly patterns, Chapter 2 uses a large dataset of field-level yields to examine the yield penalties seen in continuous maize and soybean fields. Yield loss from continuous cropping found in the model was broadly consistent with findings from field trials. Additionally, the spatial breadth and temporal depth of the dataset enabled us to find that areas with large negative yield anomalies see worse yield penalties for continuous cropping, as do soybean crops grown in areas or years with low early season vapor pressure deficit and maize crops grown in areas or years with low early or late minimum temperatures. Chapter 3 examines another promising crop configuration with potential to serve as a climate adaptation; cover crops. In it, we build a cover crop classifier based on remotely sensed data and cross the classifier's output with already existing soil quality as well as maize and soybean yield maps. The raw classifier output shows that, as intended, cover crops are more likely to be found on poorer soils in the Midwest. Contrary to other sources, however, yield benefits for adopters of the practice are quite mild, even after a number of years following the practice. Combining this conclusion with the currently high cost of cover crop adoption, continued expansion of government funding for cover cropping appears necessary to propagate the practice. Chapter 4 uses methods built in Chapter 3, but with a different aim in mind -- mapping irrigation and its adoption in two key states in the western U.S. maize-soybean belt. Here we find that irrigation has indeed been on the increase over the last decade and a half in Nebraska, though no definitive trends were seen in Iowa. The increase in Nebraska does not appear to be driven by changes in the difference between irrigated and dryland yields, and irrigation adoption was more likely to be undertaken on higher quality land from 2003-2017 versus earlier in the practice's history.

Publisher Description

This book deals with one of the major challenges facing human society and its governments, climate change and variability. The principal objective of the book is to explore how agricultural production through the actions primarily of farmers, including peasant farmers, adapt to these changing circumstances, what the limitations of adaptation are, how the process of adaptation varies between different territories (e.g. developed countries versus developing countries), and what are or can be the most effective roles for actors other than the farmers, including different levels of government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as professional associations of farmers and community organizations. The principal argument is threefold: 1) while there are significant differences between territories and countries in terms of the capacity of farmers (and the other actors) to engage in capacity building to be able to adapt effectively to climate change and variability, 2) the critical roles are those played out by the farmers themselves, but that 3) other actors can play an important role in accompanying farmers in their adaptation process, providing relevant and strategic information, counseling them and facilitating networking and meetings when appropriate. This effectively means that without engaging in the local adaptation processes governments can really only play effective roles by working with other actors at the local and regional levels. When it occurs, it can be very effective, but when it does not, farmers are left to their own devices (and even then, many are able to use their own creativity and local knowledge to survive and continue to develop). Essentially therefore, the secondary argument that is followed throughout the book is that adaptation is essentially a social process that requires an understanding of social processes and dynamics in each farming community and territory. It involves an understanding, for instance, of information diffusion processes in the different farming communities and territories, which provides a set of tools to promote and facilitate the adoption process in the context of adaptation to climate change and variability.

Climate change forecasts tell of significant challenges ahead for agrifood systems at all scales, from global to highly local. Farmers are often at the forefront of these challenges. How farmers perceive climate related risks, and the actions they take to protect or adapt their lives and livelihoods are therefore a critical area of inquiry. The purpose of this dissertation is to describe how farmers in Vermont, in the Northeastern U.S., think about climate change, and how their experiences and perceptions influence engagement with adaptation or mitigation activities. To this end, my research questions included: (1) what are farmers already doing to address climate impacts on their farms? (2) Do farmers perceive climate change to be a risk, and if so what are they doing to address it? (3) Are farmers and agricultural technical service providers in agreement about the current performance of climate change adaptation strategies? (4) Can a qualitative typology of farmers describe the degree to which they are resilient in the face of climate change? I conducted this research in the context of a larger, collaborative effort called the Vermont Agricultural Resilience in a Changing Climate Initiative (VAR), based at the University of Vermont. VAR served as an umbrella for transdisciplinary, participatory action research activities that capitalized on a diversity of perspectives and expertise, including the embedded knowledge of farmers and agricultural technical service providers. The VAR team as a whole and in sub-teams utilized a selection of research approaches including preliminary research activities that contributed to the development of research questions addressed in this dissertation, and primary research approaches used to answer those questions. This dissertation report consists of the following chapters: Chapters 1-2 present and introduction and background information related to climate change and agriculture, including a review of national, regional and site conditions as well as an overview of research purpose, approaches, methods, and theoretical frameworks applicable to the exploration of the questions and interpretation of findings. Chapters 3-6 address the following topics: (1) a case study in transdisciplinary participatory action research applied to climate change and agriculture in Vermont, (2) an analysis of farmer perceptions of climate related risk and associated on-farm adaptation strategies, (3) a report of farmer perceptions of climate change and comparison of farmer and technical service provider evaluations of potential climate change best management practices, and (4) a qualitative typology of farmer resilience. This research is some of the first to address these topics from the perspective of farmers in the Northeastern U.S. Through these chapters, an important story is told about role that climate change plays in farm management today. The broader application of these findings is in the design of thoughtful programming and policies that support agrifood system resilience. I argue that social programs and policies that address agriculture and climate change should be informed by the experiences of farmers. When we weave together the knowledge of agricultural practitioners and our best scientific knowledge, we can better prepare for the changes in agrifood systems that a changing climate will require of us.

The specific focus of this seminal work is on the economic impact of climate change on agriculture world wide, and how faced with the resultant environmental alterations, agriculture might adapt under varied and varying conditions. Enhanced with a detailed and comprehensive index, Climate Change and Agriculture is highly recommended for academic library environmental studies and economic studies reference collections and supplemental reading lists. The Midwest Book Review Despite its great importance, there are surprisingly few economic studies of the impact of climate on agriculture and how agriculture can adapt under a variety of conditions. This book examines 22 countries across four continents, including both developed and developing economies. It provides both a good analytical basis for additional work and solid results for policy debate concerning income distributional effects such as abatement, adaptation, and equity. Agriculture and grazing are a central sector in the livelihood of many people, particularly in developing countries. This book uses the Ricardian method to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. It also quantifies how farmers adapt to climate. The findings suggest that agriculture in developing countries is more sensitive to climate than agriculture in developed countries. Rain-fed cropland is generally more sensitive to warming than irrigated cropland and cropland is more sensitive than livestock. The adaptation to climate change results reveal that farmers make many adjustments including switching crops and livestock species, adopting irrigation, and moving between livestock and crops. The results also reveal that impacts and adaptations vary a great deal across landscapes, suggesting that adaptation policies must be location specific. Finally, the book suggests a research agenda for the future. Economists in academia and the public sector, policy analysts and development agencies will find this broad study illuminating.

The Anthropocene, the time of humans. Never has human influence on the functioning of the planet been greater or in more urgent need of mitigation. Climate change, the accelerated warming of the planet’s surface attributed to human activities, is now at the forefront of global politics. The agriculture sector not only contributes to climate change but also feels the severity of its effects, with the water, carbon and nitrogen cycles all subject to modification as a result. Crop production systems are each subject to different types of threat and levels of threat intensity. There is however significant potential to both adapt to and mitigate climate change within the agricultural sector and reduce these threats. Each solution must be implemented in a sustainable manner and tailored to individual regions and farming systems. This Special Issue evaluates a variety of potential climate change adaptation and mitigation techniques that account for this spatial variation, including modification to cropping systems, Climate-Smart Agriculture and the development and growth of novel crops and crop varieties.

This report indicates that climate change will significantly affect the availability and trade of fish products, especially for those countries most dependent on the sector, and calls for effective adaptation and mitigation actions encompassing food production.