Each year the Social Security Administration forecasts the financial status of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs by projecting trends in key variables such as the labor force participation and earnings of the U.S. population. In the difficult task of projecting the long-term financial status of Social Security, assumptions are made concerning the relationship of immigrants to Social Security. An important aspect of that relationship is the emigration of immigrants. This paper describes the general assumptions related to the level and timing of emigration that underlie projections of Social Security's financial status and examines how closely these assumptions fit research findings based on a variety of data sources. Previous trends in emigration and factors that may affect current and future levels of emigration are described. The paper also presents theoretical expectations and empirical evidence concerning the timing of emigration.

In the political-economy debate people express the idea that immigrants are good because they can help pay for the old, thus help sustaining the social security system. In addition, the median voter whose income derives from wages will wish to keep out the immigrants who will depress his/her wage. Therefore the decisive voter will keep migrants out. The paper addresses these two accepted propositions. For this purpose we develop an OLG political economy model of social security and migration to explore how migration policy and a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system are jointly determined. The sub-game perfect Markov , depends on the different patterns of fertility rates among native born and migrants. Our analysis demonstrates that a social security system may change the first proposition significantly because the median voter may opt to bring in migrants to help him/her during retirement. As for the second proposition we get a significantly nuanced version. Not always immigration helps sustain the social security.

This third and last open access volume in the series takes the perspective of non-EU countries on immigrant social protection. By focusing on 12 of the largest sending countries to the EU, the book tackles the issue of the multiple areas of sending state intervention towards migrant populations. Two “mirroring” chapters are dedicated to each of the 12 non-EU states analysed (Argentina, China, Ecuador, India, Lebanon, Morocco, Russia, Senegal, Serbia, Switzerland, Tunisia, Turkey). One chapter focuses on access to social benefits across five core policy areas (health care, unemployment, old-age pensions, family benefits, guaranteed minimum resources) by discussing the social protection policies that non-EU countries offer to national residents, non-national residents, and non-resident nationals. The second chapter examines the role of key actors (consulates, diaspora institutions and home country ministries and agencies) through which non-EU sending countries respond to the needs of nationals abroad. The volume additionally includes two chapters focusing on the peculiar case of the United Kingdom after the Brexit referendum. Overall, this volume contributes to ongoing debates on migration and the welfare state in Europe by showing how non-EU sending states continue to play a role in third country nationals’ ability to deal with social risks. As such this book is a valuable read to researchers, policy makers, government employees and NGO’s.

This first open access book in a series of three volumes provides an in-depth analysis of social protection policies that EU Member States make accessible to resident nationals, non-resident nationals and non-national residents. In doing so, it discusses different scenarios in which the interplay between nationality and residence could lead to inequalities of access to welfare. Each chapter maps the eligibility conditions for accessing social benefits, by paying particular attention to the social entitlements that migrants can claim in host countries and/or export from home countries. The book also identifies and compares recent trends of access to welfare entitlements across five policy areas: health care, unemployment, family benefits, pensions, and guaranteed minimum resources. As such this book is a valuable read to researchers, policy makers, government employees and NGO’s.

For decades scholars have attempted to understand the effects of immigration on the U.S. Social Security system. To date, this research has been primarily limited to migrants in the U.S. and does not consider those who return to their countries of origin. Immigrants often pay OASDI taxes using illegitimate Social Security numbers and may return to their home countries without collecting U.S. Social Security benefits. In this study, we analyze the socioeconomic and labor characteristics, health, migration histories, and transitions to retirement of male Mexican return migrants who contributed to the U.S. Social Security system. Using the 2003 and 2012 Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS), we find that in 2012, 32 percent of male return migrants reported having contributed to the U.S. Social Security system but only five percent of those who contributed, received or expected to receive benefits. Those who reported having contributed were more likely to have completed college, spent more years in the U.S., and were more likely to be U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents than those who did not contribute. We also find that return migrants who spent one to nine years in the U.S. had a lower probability of transitioning to retirement between 2003 and 2012 than those had never been to the U.S. In contrast, those who spent 20 or more years in the U.S. had a higher probability of transitioning to retirement.