Ross's Simulation, Fourth Edition introduces aspiring and practicing actuaries, engineers, computer scientists and others to the practical aspects of constructing computerized simulation studies to analyze and interpret real phenomena. Readers learn to apply results of these analyses to problems in a wide variety of fields to obtain effective, accurate solutions and make predictions about future outcomes. This text explains how a computer can be used to generate random numbers, and how to use these random numbers to generate the behavior of a stochastic model over time. It presents the statistics needed to analyze simulated data as well as that needed for validating the simulation model. - More focus on variance reduction, including control variables and their use in estimating the expected return at blackjack and their relation to regression analysis - A chapter on Markov chain monte carlo methods with many examples - Unique material on the alias method for generating discrete random variables

Simulation means driving a model of a system with suitable inputs and observing the corresponding outputs. It is widely applied in engineering, in business, and in the physical and social sciences. Simulation method ology araws on computer. science, statistics, and operations research and is now sufficiently developed and coherent to be called a discipline in its own right. A course in simulation is an essential part of any operations re search or computer science program. A large fraction of applied work in these fields involves simulation; the techniques of simulation, as tools, are as fundamental as those of linear programming or compiler construction, for example. Simulation sometimes appears deceptively easy, but perusal of this book will reveal unexpected depths. Many simulation studies are statistically defective and many simulation programs are inefficient. We hope that our book will help to remedy this situation. It is intended to teach how to simulate effectively. A simulation project has three crucial components, each of which must always be tackled: (1) data gathering, model building, and validation; (2) statistical design and estimation; (3) programming and implementation. Generation of random numbers (Chapters 5 and 6) pervades simulation, but unlike the three components above, random number generators need not be constructed from scratch for each project. Usually random number packages are available. That is one reason why the chapters on random numbers, which contain mainly reference material, follow the ch!lPters deal ing with experimental design and output analysis.

The YUIMA package is the first comprehensive R framework based on S4 classes and methods which allows for the simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by Wiener process, Lévy processes or fractional Brownian motion, as well as CARMA, COGARCH, and Point processes. The package performs various central statistical analyses such as quasi maximum likelihood estimation, adaptive Bayes estimation, structural change point analysis, hypotheses testing, asynchronous covariance estimation, lead-lag estimation, LASSO model selection, and so on. YUIMA also supports stochastic numerical analysis by fast computation of the expected value of functionals of stochastic processes through automatic asymptotic expansion by means of the Malliavin calculus. All models can be multidimensional, multiparametric or non parametric.The book explains briefly the underlying theory for simulation and inference of several classes of stochastic processes and then presents both simulation experiments and applications to real data. Although these processes have been originally proposed in physics and more recently in finance, they are becoming popular also in biology due to the fact the time course experimental data are now available. The YUIMA package, available on CRAN, can be freely downloaded and this companion book will make the user able to start his or her analysis from the first page.

A modern introduction to the Poisson process, with general point processes and random measures, and applications to stochastic geometry.

Simulation Methods for Reliability and Availability of Complex Systems discusses the use of computer simulation-based techniques and algorithms to determine reliability and availability (R and A) levels in complex systems. The book: shares theoretical or applied models and decision support systems that make use of simulation to estimate and to improve system R and A levels, forecasts emerging technologies and trends in the use of computer simulation for R and A and proposes hybrid approaches to the development of efficient methodologies designed to solve R and A-related problems in real-life systems. Dealing with practical issues, Simulation Methods for Reliability and Availability of Complex Systems is designed to support managers and system engineers in the improvement of R and A, as well as providing a thorough exploration of the techniques and algorithms available for researchers, and for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students.

The safe and reliable performance of many systems with which we interact daily has been achieved through the analysis and management of risk. From complex infrastructures to consumer durables, from engineering systems and technologies used in transportation, health, energy, chemical, oil, gas, aerospace, maritime, defence and other sectors, the management of risk during design, manufacture, operation and decommissioning is vital. Methods and models to support risk-informed decision-making are well established but are continually challenged by technology innovations, increasing interdependencies, and changes in societal expectations. Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.

Monte Carlo simulation has become one of the most important tools in all fields of science. This book surveys the basic techniques and principles of the subject, as well as general techniques useful in more complicated models and in novel settings. The emphasis throughout is on practical methods that work well in current computing environments.