Warming over the past century has been greatest in high-latitudes over land and a number of environmental indicators suggest that the Arctic climate system is in the process of a major transition. Given the magnitude of observed and projected changes in the Arctic, it is essential that a better understanding of the characteristics of the Arctic climate system be achieved. In this work, I report on modifications to the UVic Earth System Climate model to allow it to represent regions of perennially-frozen ground, or permafrost. I examine the model's representation of the Arctic climate during the 20th Century and show that it capably represents the distribution and thermal state of permafrost in the present-day climate system. I use Representative Concentration Pathways to examine a range of possible future permafrost states to the year 2500. A suite of sensitivity experiments is used to better understand controls on permafrost. I demonstrate the potential for radical environmental changes in the Arctic over the 21st Century including continued warming, enhanced precipitation and a reduction of between 29 and 54 % of the present-day permafrost area by 2100. Model projections show that widespread loss of high-latitude wetlands may accompany the loss of near surface permafrost.

The land surface plays a key role in local and regional climates at mid- and high-latitudes as well as in the global climate system. Consequently, changes in snow and permafrost affect other parts of the climate system. In this dissertation, we explore the role of the land surface in the cryosphere, with a particular focus on high latitudes, using a hierarchy of standalone land surface models (LSMs), fully-coupled regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs). In Chapter 2, I describe simulated changes in snowpack and fire potential in the western US using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model under future climate projections for an ensemble of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. Large losses of snowpack and increases in fire potential are projected to occur in the mountainous parts of the western US in the 21st century, whereas increases in fire potential are much more uncertain in lowland regions due to large uncertainty in precipitation projections. In Chapter 3, I draw on two modeling ensembles, the Community Earth System Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and the CESM Low Warming Ensemble (CESM-LWE), to understand projected changes in snow and how these changes will affect soil thermal regimes and permafrost in the 21st century over the circumpolar Arctic for three levels of warming: 1.5°C, 2°C and RCP 8.5. Even for the lower emissions scenarios represented by the 1.5°C and 2°C global-mean warming pathways, the majority of the Arctic is projected to experience significant decreases in Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), while parts of Eurasia will experience substantial increases. Large losses of permafrost are projected due to a significant warming of the soil column by the end of the 21st century. Soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are highly vulnerable and loss of permafrost could result in potentially large losses of carbon to the atmosphere. In Chapter 4, I describe the process of designing a new parameter set for application over a pan-Arctic domain in version 5 of the VIC hydrology model (VIC-5) and in the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), a fully-coupled regional climate model. Simulated streamflow in RASM simulations is significantly higher than in standalone VIC-5 simulations and much more closely matches observations, while simulated permafrost in standalone VIC-5 simulations more closely approximates observed permafrost extent, illustrating the difficulties of designing land surface parameters for application in a land surface model that is used in both standalone and fully-coupled modeling contexts.

The recent quantification of the reservoir of carbon held in permafrost soils has rekindled the concern that the terrestrial biosphere will transition from a carbon sink to a carbon source during the 21st century. This dissertation is a compilation of four modelling studies that investigate the permafrost carbon feedback, its consequences for the projected future behaviour of the carbon cycle, and the origins of the proportionally between cumulative CO2 emissions and near surface temperature change. The dissertation is centred around five questions: 1) what is the strength and timing of the permafrost carbon feedback to climate change? 2) If anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease, will atmospheric CO2 concentration continue to increase? 3) Can climate warming be reversed using artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal? 4) What are the underlying physical mechanisms that explain the existence in Earth system models of the proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and mean global near surface temperature change? And 5) can strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, such as the permafrost carbon feedback, disrupt this proportionality? By investigating the these questions using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and analytical mathematics the following conclusions are drawn: 1) The permafrost carbon feedback to climate change is simulated to have a strength of 0.25 C (0.1 to 0.75)C by the year 2100 CE independent of emission pathway followed in the 21st century. This range is contingent on the size of the permafrost carbon pool and the simulated model climate sensitivity. 2) If CO2 emissions were to suddenly cease, the UVic ESCM suggests that whether or not CO2 would continue to build up in the atmosphere is contingent on climate sensitivity and the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. For a given model climate sensitivity there is a threshold value of radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gasses above which CO2 will continue to build up in the atmosphere for centuries after cessation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. For a UVic ESCM the threshold value for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) derived emission scenarios is approximately 0.6 Wm^-2 of non-CO2 greenhouse gas radiative forcing. The consequences of being above this threshold value are mild, with the model projecting a further 11-22 ppmv rise in atmosphere CO2 concentration after emissions cease. 3) If technologies were developed and deployed to remove carbon from the atmosphere simulations with the UVic ESCM suggest that a Holocene-like climate could be restored by the end of the present millennium (except under a high climate sensitivity and high emission scenario). However, more carbon must be removed from the atmosphere than was originally emitted to it ... .

Permafrost is a thermal condition-its formation, persistence and disappearance are highly dependent on climate. General circulation models predict that, for a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, mean annual air temperatures may rise up to several degrees over much of the Arctic. In the discontinuous permafrost region, where ground temperatures are within 1-2 degrees of thawing, permafrost will likely ultimately disappear as a result of ground thermal changes associated with global climate warming. Where ground ice contents are high, permafrost degradation will have associated physical impacts. Permafrost thaw stands to have wide-ranging impacts, such as the draining and drying of the tundra, erosion of riverbanks and coastline, and destabilization of infrastructure (roads, airports, buildings, etc.), and including potential implications for ecosystems and the carbon cycle in the high latitudes. Opportunities to Use Remote Sensing in Understanding Permafrost and Related Ecological Characteristics is the summary of a workshop convened by the National Research Council to explore opportunities for using remote sensing to advance our understanding of permafrost status and trends and the impacts of permafrost change, especially on ecosystems and the carbon cycle in the high latitudes. The workshop brought together experts from the remote sensing community with permafrost and ecosystem scientists. The workshop discussions articulated gaps in current understanding and potential opportunities to harness remote sensing techniques to better understand permafrost, permafrost change, and implications for ecosystems in permafrost areas. This report addresses questions such as how remote sensing might be used in innovative ways, how it might enhance our ability to document long-term trends, and whether it is possible to integrate remote sensing products with the ground-based observations and assimilate them into advanced Arctic system models. Additionally, the report considers the expectations of the quality and spatial and temporal resolution possible through such approaches, and the prototype sensors that are available that could be used for detailed ground calibration of permafrost/high latitude carbon cycle studies.

Changes in climate across the Arctic in recent decades and especially the increase of near-surface air temperature promote signicant changes in key natural components of the Arctic including permafrost (defined as soil experiencing subzero temperature for more than two consecutive years). Recent borehole observations exhibit signicant increase in ground temperatures below the depths of seasonal variations. Modeling studies on a global scale suggest a steady decrease in area underlain by near-surface permafrost in the northern hemisphere in recent decades. Global projections for the next century predict further permafrost degradation depending on the greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. Permafrost degradation is not only associated with climate feedbacks but can also result in signicant changes in coastal and terrestrial ecosystems and increased risks of costly infrastructural damage for Arctic settlements. In addition, permafrost plays an important role in the terrestrial part of the Arctic freshwater cycle as the volumes of frozen ground are practically impermeable for subsurface moisture transport and contain excess water in the form of ground ice. Since geophysical observations bear signicant costs in the Arctic, especially in the remote areas, simulations performed with physically based numerical models allow researchers to assess the current state of permafrost in Arctic regions and make future projections of its dynamics and resulting hydrological impacts. In this dissertation we use numerical modeling in two distinct ways: 1) to estimate current and future ground temperature distribution with high resolution on a regional scale and 2) to evaluate the role permafrost degradation plays in changes in water balance of watersheds under changing climate. First, we study the permafrost evolution of the Seward Peninsula, Alaska over the 20th and 21st century using a distributed heat transfer model. Model parameters are calibrated with a variational data assimilation and are distributed across the study domain with an ecosystem type approach. Simulations suggest that the peninsula will experience a reduction in the near surface permafrost extent of up to 90% and an average increase in ground temperature across the peninsula up to 4.4°C towards the end of the 21st century under the high greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. Second, we perform an ensemble of millennia-long experiments by simulating hypothetical idealized small-scale watersheds placed in a typical Sub-Arctic setting with a physically based distributed hydrological model. In these experiments we single out the effects of temperature dependent subsurface moisture transport by applying air temperature change in our forcing scenarios only to sub-zero temperatures within a given year. Results suggest a long-term increase in annual runoff of 7-15% and a similar decrease in evapotranspiration under a prolonged (up to a millennia) air-temperature increase. The short-term (

This book provides a cross-disciplinary overview of permafrost and the carbon cycle by providing an introduction into the geographical distribution of permafrost, with a focus on the distribution of permafrost and its soil carbon reservoirs. The chapters explain the basic physical properties and processes of permafrost soils: ice, mineral and organic components, and how these interact with climate, vegetation and geomorphological processes. In particular, the book covers the role of the large quantities of ice in many permafrost soils which are crucial to understanding carbon cycle processes. An explanation is given on how permafrost becomes loaded with ice and carbon. Gas hydrates are also introduced. Structures and processes formed by the intense freeze-thaw action in the active layer are considered (e.g. ice wedging, cryoturbation), and the processes that occur as the permafrost thaws, (pond and lake formation, erosion). The book introduces soil carbon accumulation and decomposition mechanisms and how these are modified in a permafrost environment. A separate chapter deals with deep permafrost carbon, gas reservoirs and recently discovered methane emission phenomena from regions such as Northwest Siberia and the Siberian yedoma permafrost.