Selected topics on nonparametric conditional quantiles and risk theory
Title | Selected topics on nonparametric conditional quantiles and risk theory PDF eBook |
Author | Yebin Cheng |
Publisher | Rozenberg Publishers |
Pages | 189 |
Release | 2007 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9051706901 |
The dynamics of cooperate credit risk. An intensity-based econometric
Title | The dynamics of cooperate credit risk. An intensity-based econometric PDF eBook |
Author | |
Publisher | Rozenberg Publishers |
Pages | 221 |
Release | 2008 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9051709293 |
Essays on the measurements sensitivity of risk aversion and causal effects in education
Title | Essays on the measurements sensitivity of risk aversion and causal effects in education PDF eBook |
Author | Adam Sanoé Booij |
Publisher | Rozenberg Publishers |
Pages | 174 |
Release | 2009 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9036101190 |
Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging
Title | Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging PDF eBook |
Author | Francesco Ravazzolo |
Publisher | Rozenberg Publishers |
Pages | 198 |
Release | 2007 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9051709145 |
Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this thesis we focus on forecasting financial time series using model averaging schemes as a way to produce optimal forecasts. We derive and discuss in simulation exercises and empirical applications model averaging techniques that can reproduce stylized facts of financial time series, such as low predictability and time-varying patterns. We emphasize that model averaging is not a "magic" methodology which solves a priori problems of poorly forecasting. Averaging techniques have an essential requirement: individual models have to fit data. In the first section we provide a general outline of the thesis and its contributions to previ ous research. In Chapter 2 we focus on the use of time varying model weight combinations. In Chapter 3, we extend the analysis in the previous chapter to a new Bayesian averaging scheme that models structural instability carefully. In Chapter 4 we focus on forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. In Chapter 5 we attempt to shed more light on forecasting performance of stochastic day-ahead price models. We examine six stochastic price models to forecast day-ahead prices of the two most active power exchanges in the world: the Nordic Power Exchange and the Amsterdam Power Exchange. Three of these forecasting models include weather forecasts. To sum up, the research finds an increase of forecasting power of financial time series when parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and optimal decision making are included.
Efficient pricing algorithms for exotic derivatives
Title | Efficient pricing algorithms for exotic derivatives PDF eBook |
Author | Roger Lord |
Publisher | Rozenberg Publishers |
Pages | 211 |
Release | 2008 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9051709099 |
Kahnemann and Tversky and the making of behavioral economics
Title | Kahnemann and Tversky and the making of behavioral economics PDF eBook |
Author | Floris Heukelom |
Publisher | Rozenberg Publishers |
Pages | 186 |
Release | 2009 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9036101255 |
Rationalised panics. The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis
Title | Rationalised panics. The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis PDF eBook |
Author | Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls |
Publisher | Rozenberg Publishers |
Pages | 234 |
Release | 2009 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9036101328 |