In this study, we show how a dynamic insurance program can be implemented within a mean-variance framework. The approach combines elements of the single period safety first idea suggested by Telser and developed by Leibowitz with multiperiod insurance strategies like CPPI and TIPP. The insurance program allows the user to set a probability of hitting a specified floor or target and also allows for changing risk attitudes through time. When the insurance strategy is tested on historical data, the insured portfolio achieves high long-term returns while mostly avoiding long bear markets. In order to understand how the insurance strategy might perform in the future, we simulate returns of the stock market and compare the insurance strategy to buy and hold strategies. An additional benefit of the safety first approach is that it specifies a strategy for underfunded portfolios as well as overfunded portfolios.

Two fundamentally different philosophies for retirement income planning, which I call probability-based and safety-first, diverge on the critical issue of where a retirement plan is best served: in the risk/reward trade-offs of a diversified and aggressive investment portfolio that relies primarily on the stock market, or in the contractual protections of insurance products that integrate the power of risk pooling and actuarial science alongside investments. The probability-based approach is generally better understood by the public. It advocates using an aggressive investment portfolio with a large allocation to stocks to meet retirement goals. My earlier book How Much Can I Spend in Retirement? A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Strategies provides an extensive investigation of probability-based approaches. But this investments-only attitude is not the optimal way to build a retirement income plan. There are pitfalls in retirement that we are less familiar with during the accumulation years. The nature of risk changes. Longevity risk is the possibility of living longer than planned, which could mean not having resources to maintain the retiree's standard of living. And once retirement distributions begin, market downturns in the early years can disproportionately harm retirement sustainability. This is sequence-of-returns risk, and it acts to amplify the impacts of market volatility in retirement. Traditional wealth management is not equipped to handle these new risks in a fulfilling way. More assets are required to cover spending goals over a possibly costly retirement triggered by a long life and poor market returns. And yet, there is no assurance that assets will be sufficient. For retirees who are worried about outliving their wealth, probability-based strategies can become excessively conservative and stressful. This book focuses on the other option: safety-first retirement planning. Safety-first advocates support a more bifurcated approach to building retirement income plans that integrates insurance with investments, providing lifetime income protections to cover spending. With risk pooling through insurance, retirees effectively pay an insurance premium that will provide a benefit to support spending in otherwise costly retirements that could deplete an unprotected investment portfolio. Insurance companies can pool sequence and longevity risks across a large base of retirees, much like a traditional defined-benefit company pension plan or Social Security, allowing for retirement spending that is more closely aligned with averages. When bonds are replaced with insurance-based risk pooling assets, retirees can improve the odds of meeting their spending goals while also supporting more legacy at the end of life, especially in the event of a longer-than-average retirement. We walk through this thought process and logic in steps, investigating three basic ways to fund a retirement spending goal: with bonds, with a diversified investment portfolio, and with risk pooling through annuities and life insurance. We consider the potential role for different types of annuities including simple income annuities, variable annuities, and fixed index annuities. I explain how different annuities work and how readers can evaluate them. We also examine the potential for whole life insurance to contribute to a retirement income plan. When we properly consider the range of risks introduced after retirement, I conclude that the integrated strategies preferred by safety-first advocates support more efficient retirement outcomes. Safety-first retirement planning helps to meet financial goals with less worry. This book explains how to evaluate different insurance options and implement these solutions into an integrated retirement plan.

A practical guide to getting personal investing right Somewhere along the way, something has gone very wrong with the way individuals save and invest. Too often, households are drawn in by promotional suggestions masquerading as impartial investment advice. Consumers get saddled with more risk than they realize. Authors Zvi Bodie and Rachelle Taqqu understand the dilemma that today's investors face, and with Risk Less and Prosper they will help you find your financial footing. Written in an accessible style, this practical guide skillfully explains why personal investing is all about you—your goals, your values and your career path. It shows how to understand investment risk and choose the particular blend of risk and safety that is right for you. And it lays out several simple yet powerful ways for small investors to cast a reliable safety net to achieve their financial goals and truly prosper. Coauthors Bodie and Taqqu challenge the myth that all investments require risk, then highlight some important risks that families often disregard when deciding where to put their money. Later, they connect the dots between investment and investor, showing us all how to grasp our own investment risk profiles and how we may use these insights to make more fitting investment choices. Outlines a straightforward way to invest by aligning your investments with your goals and the risk levels you can bear Provides basic investment abc's for readers who are otherwise literate Lays out a simple, actionable plan for achieving your goals Explains the role of risk-free assets and investment insurance in assuring that you reach your most essential goals Contrary to popular belief, investing doesn't have to be complicated. You can build wealth without taking great risks. Risk Less and Prosper will show you how to make investment decisions that will make your financial life less stressful and more profitable.

What is a safe haven? What role should they play in an investment portfolio? Do we use them only to seek shelter until the passing of financial storms? Or are they something more? Contrary to everything we know from modern financial theory, can higher returns actually come as a result of lowering risk? In Safe Haven, hedge fund manager Mark Spitznagel—one of the top practitioners of safe haven investing and portfolio risk mitigation in the world—answers these questions and more. Investors who heed the message in this book will never look at risk mitigation the same way again.

Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.

In our daily life, almost every family owns a portfolio of assets. This portfolio could contain real assets such as a car, or a house, as well as financial assets such as stocks, bonds or futures. Portfolio theory deals with how to form a satisfied portfolio among an enormous number of assets. Originally proposed by H. Markowtiz in 1952, the mean-variance methodology for portfolio optimization has been central to the research activities in this area and has served as a basis for the development of modem financial theory during the past four decades. Follow-on work with this approach has born much fruit for this field of study. Among all those research fruits, the most important is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) proposed by Sharpe in 1964. This model greatly simplifies the input for portfolio selection and makes the mean-variance methodology into a practical application. Consequently, lots of models were proposed to price the capital assets. In this book, some of the most important progresses in portfolio theory are surveyed and a few new models for portfolio selection are presented. Models for asset pricing are illustrated and the empirical tests of CAPM for China's stock markets are made. The first chapter surveys ideas and principles of modeling the investment decision process of economic agents. It starts with the Markowitz criteria of formulating return and risk as mean and variance and then looks into other related criteria which are based on probability assumptions on future prices of securities.

Do you worry that you're not paying enough attention to your investments? Do you feel left out when you hear about the clever things other investors seem to be doing? Relax. You don't have to become an investment genius to protect your savings. Distilling the wisdom of his thirty years' experience into lessons that can be applied in thirty minutes, Harry Browne shows you what you need to know to make your savings and investments safe and profitable, no matter what the economy and the investment markets do. There are no secret trading systems here, no jargon to learn. Instead, Harry Browne teaches you in simple terms to, among other things: -Build your wealth on your career -Make your own decisions -Build a bulletproof portfolio for protection -Take advantage of tax-reduction plans -Enjoy yourself with a budget for pleasure