Threatcasting

Threatcasting
Title Threatcasting PDF eBook
Author Brian David Johnson
Publisher Springer Nature
Pages 285
Release 2022-06-01
Genre Mathematics
ISBN 303102575X

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Impending technological advances will widen an adversary’s attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future. Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape. This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader’s understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of “the next biological public health crisis.” The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner’s handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.

RMA to ONA: the Saga of an Effects-Based Operation

RMA to ONA: the Saga of an Effects-Based Operation
Title RMA to ONA: the Saga of an Effects-Based Operation PDF eBook
Author Charles M. Kyle
Publisher Createspace Independent Pub
Pages 60
Release 2012-09-22
Genre History
ISBN 9781479371426

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In the aftermath of the air campaign that began Operation Desert Storm, the US Air Force sought to measure US success in the military-technical and organizational innovation that occurred during the Gulf War and its impact on the future evolution of military art. From the perspective of the Air Force, the success of the war was based on planning and execution by the US air and naval strike forces during the initial aero-space operation, which set the stage for follow-on air-ground operations. These operations culminated in the defeat of Iraqi forces in theater and the liberation of Kuwait with few allied casualties. This success attracted considerable attention within the US Air Force and led to the reorganization of US Airpower for the Post-Cold War environment, which was characterized by local conflicts and Operations Other Than War. This success led the US Air Force submit this concept as the “centerpiece” for its input to the Quadrennial Defense Review of 2001. Air power theorists promoted this emerging concept as Effects-Based Operations (EBO). EBO emphasized that the goal of any conflict was to cause the adversary to act in accordance with US national interests, and that this could be achieved by the application of superior technology, against selected targets, to cause an effect. Though this was not a new concept, EBO was a new means to apply force in military operations. Over the past decade there has been confusion on what is EBO, its capabilities and necessity. So where does all the confusion come from? Is contention by the service components regarding EBO just petty semantics or obstructionist in-fighting over a “rice bowl”? The divisive interservice politics of EBO is utilized to illuminate certain issues but will not be researched and discussed in great detail for this monograph. It is unlikely that the Army will incorporate the term “EBO”, but apparently, effects-based approaches have been, and will continue to be, intertwined within doctrine and tactics for the foreseeable future. Army reticence to adopt even the word “EBO” or embrace it's principles begs the following question: “So what if we don't understand the theory, origins or the actual process, if the Army is implementing portions of EBO effectively, is that not success?” More than tacit incorporation of EBO may be needed, however, given the merits of EBO as a conceptual framework. At the Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate (CADD), Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, there is a push to rethink the way the Army makes decisions, postulating that a greater understanding of the environment and a complete understanding of the actual “problem” is necessary. This ability to gain a systemic understanding of the environment and developing a theory of action to inform a planning process is encapsulated in the “Art of Design,” in which concepts of iterative learning and complex problems are introduced. Although the actual label of EBO may not be incorporated, the concepts and terminology may complement this emergent doctrine. There is confusion and opposition to incorporating an effects based approach into Joint and Army planning doctrine that may be a result of resistance to ideas and concepts associated with, but not part of EBO. For example the Revolution in Military Affairs and the Air Force's interest in understanding the enemy as a system, vulnerable to the employment of precision weapons and discriminate air attack alone are highly controversial and often incorrectly, and unfairly associated with EBO. It is the merits of EBO, not related arguments postulated by EBO proponents that are considered in this monograph.

Saga of an Aviation Survivor

Saga of an Aviation Survivor
Title Saga of an Aviation Survivor PDF eBook
Author Howard John Hunt
Publisher
Pages 220
Release 2021
Genre
ISBN 9781888215847

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A military officer, piloted B-17 Memphis Belle, Alaska bush pilot, gold miner, homesteader, entrepreneur, Warbird preservationist, mountain climber, risk taker, Lend-Lease pilot, helicopter pilot, philanthropist, and real estate developer.

The World Republic of Letters

The World Republic of Letters
Title The World Republic of Letters PDF eBook
Author Pascale Casanova
Publisher Harvard University Press
Pages 446
Release 2004
Genre Literary Criticism
ISBN 9780674013452

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The "world of letters" has always seemed a matter more of metaphor than of global reality. In this book, Pascale Casanova shows us the state of world literature behind the stylistic refinements--a world of letters relatively independent from economic and political realms, and in which language systems, aesthetic orders, and genres struggle for dominance. Rejecting facile talk of globalization, with its suggestion of a happy literary "melting pot," Casanova exposes an emerging regime of inequality in the world of letters, where minor languages and literatures are subject to the invisible but implacable violence of their dominant counterparts. Inspired by the writings of Fernand Braudel and Pierre Bourdieu, this ambitious book develops the first systematic model for understanding the production, circulation, and valuing of literature worldwide. Casanova proposes a baseline from which we might measure the newness and modernity of the world of letters--the literary equivalent of the meridian at Greenwich. She argues for the importance of literary capital and its role in giving value and legitimacy to nations in their incessant struggle for international power. Within her overarching theory, Casanova locates three main periods in the genesis of world literature--Latin, French, and German--and closely examines three towering figures in the world republic of letters--Kafka, Joyce, and Faulkner. Her work provides a rich and surprising view of the political struggles of our modern world--one framed by sites of publication, circulation, translation, and efforts at literary annexation.

The Consonant Phonotactics of Georgian

The Consonant Phonotactics of Georgian
Title The Consonant Phonotactics of Georgian PDF eBook
Author Marika Butskhrikidze
Publisher
Pages 268
Release 2002
Genre Georgian language
ISBN

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The Role of the Reader

The Role of the Reader
Title The Role of the Reader PDF eBook
Author Umberto Eco
Publisher Indiana University Press
Pages 288
Release 1979
Genre Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN 9780253203182

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Discusses the differences between "open" and "closed" texts, or, texts that actively involve the reader and texts that evoke a limited, predetermined response from the reader. -- Back cover.

Command Of The Air

Command Of The Air
Title Command Of The Air PDF eBook
Author General Giulio Douhet
Publisher Pickle Partners Publishing
Pages 620
Release 2014-08-15
Genre History
ISBN 1782898522

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In the pantheon of air power spokesmen, Giulio Douhet holds center stage. His writings, more often cited than perhaps actually read, appear as excerpts and aphorisms in the writings of numerous other air power spokesmen, advocates-and critics. Though a highly controversial figure, the very controversy that surrounds him offers to us a testimonial of the value and depth of his work, and the need for airmen today to become familiar with his thought. The progressive development of air power to the point where, today, it is more correct to refer to aerospace power has not outdated the notions of Douhet in the slightest In fact, in many ways, the kinds of technological capabilities that we enjoy as a global air power provider attest to the breadth of his vision. Douhet, together with Hugh “Boom” Trenchard of Great Britain and William “Billy” Mitchell of the United States, is justly recognized as one of the three great spokesmen of the early air power era. This reprint is offered in the spirit of continuing the dialogue that Douhet himself so perceptively began with the first edition of this book, published in 1921. Readers may well find much that they disagree with in this book, but also much that is of enduring value. The vital necessity of Douhet’s central vision-that command of the air is all important in modern warfare-has been proven throughout the history of wars in this century, from the fighting over the Somme to the air war over Kuwait and Iraq.