This paper assesses liquidity risk for the United States (U.S.) bond mutual funds industry and performs a range of analyses to identify which fund categories are more vulnerable to distress than others, and how sales from funds can impact financial stability. We develop a new measure to identify vulnerable categories based on expected outflows labelled ‘Flows in Distress’. Overall, most U.S. mutual funds are resilient yet high yield (HY) and loan funds would face a liquidity shortfall when faced with severe redemption shocks. Combined sales from funds can have a sizeable price impact. Finally, our contagion analysis using data on fund flows and returns shows that Investment Grade (IG) corporate bonds funds, municipal bond funds and government bond funds are more likely to spread distress to other fund categories than HY, EM and loan funds. When the first type of funds experiences stress, other funds categories are likely to experience stress as well.

We study three cases in which specialized arbitrageurs lost significant amounts of capital and, as a result, became liquidity demanders rather than providers. The effects on security markets were large and persistent: Prices dropped relative to fundamentals and the rebound took months. While multi-strategy hedge funds who were not capital constrained increased their positions, a large fraction of these funds actually acted as net sellers consistent with the view that information barriers within a firm (not just relative to outside investors) can lead to capital constraints for trading desks with mark-to-market losses. Our findings suggest that real world frictions impede arbitrage capital.

The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.

In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) revolutionized asset markets by using an innovative structure to make investing in a wide variety of asset classes simpler and cheaper. With their growing importance has come increasing concern that these products pose new risks to market stability and performance. This paper examines whether ETFs affect systemic risks in financial markets and, if they do, what the mechanism is by which this impact occurs and what can be done to keep the risks under control. We review current research and empirical evidence on these issues and discuss some emerging risks in ETFs. We ask whether we have the right “rules of the road” to deal with the new drivers of market behavior.

The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.

A guide to how your money is managed, with foreword by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller The Fund Industry offers a comprehensive look at mutual funds and the investment management industry, for fund investors, those working in the fund industry, service providers to the industry and students of financial institutions or capital markets. Industry experts Robert Pozen and Theresa Hamacher take readers on a tour of the business of asset management. Readers will learn how to research a fund and assess whether it's right for them; then they'll go behind the scenes to see how funds are invested, sold and regulated. This updated edition expands coverage of the segments of the industry where growth is hottest, including hedge funds, liquid alternatives, ETFs and target date funds—and adds an introduction to derivatives. Mutual funds are a key component of financial planning for 96 million Americans. Nearly a quarter of U.S. household savings are invested in funds, which give individual investors affordable access to professional management. This book provides a detailed look at how firms in the industry: Invest those savings in stocks and bonds Evaluate the risks and returns of funds Distribute funds directly to consumers or through financial advisors or retirement plans Handle the complex operational and regulatory requirements of mutual funds Vote proxies at the annual meetings of public companies Expand their operations across borders Along the way, the authors describe the latest trends and discuss the biggest controversies—all in straightforward and engaging prose. The Fund Industry is the essential guide to navigating the mutual fund industry.