At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

A Global Catastrophic Risk is one that has the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. This book focuses on such risks arising from natural catastrophes (Earth-based or beyond), nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and social collapse.

Did you know that your chances of dying of rabies this year are less than your chances of being hit by a falling airplane? Guaranteed to pique your curiosity and open your eyes about life's myriad perils, this book takes a lighthearted look at the risks we face every day, providing hours of astonishing information. Sidebars and graphs.

Few people realize that prescription drugs have become a leading cause of death, disease, and disability. Adverse reactions to widely used drugs, such as psychotropics and birth control pills, as well as biologicals, result in FDA warnings against adverse reactions. The Risks of Prescription Drugs describes how most drugs approved by the FDA are under-tested for adverse drug reactions, yet offer few new benefits. Drugs cause more than 2.2 million hospitalizations and 110,000 hospital-based deaths a year. Serious drug reactions at home or in nursing homes would significantly raise the total. Women, older people, and people with disabilities are least used in clinical trials and most affected. Health policy experts Donald Light, Howard Brody, Peter Conrad, Allan Horwitz, and Cheryl Stults describe how current regulations reward drug companies to expand clinical risks and create new diseases so millions of patients are exposed to unnecessary risks, especially women and the elderly. They reward developing marginally better drugs rather than discovering breakthrough, life-saving drugs. The Risks of Prescription Drugs tackles critical questions about the pharmaceutical industry and the privatization of risk. To what extent does the FDA protect the public from serious side effects and disasters? What is the effect of giving the private sector and markets a greater role and reducing public oversight? This volume considers whether current rules and incentives put patients' health at greater risk, the effect of the expansion of disease categories, the industry's justification of high U.S. prices, and the underlying shifts in the burden of risk borne by individuals in the world of pharmaceuticals. Chapters cover risks of statins for high cholesterol, SSRI drugs for depression and anxiety, and hormone replacement therapy for menopause. A final chapter outlines six changes to make drugs safer and more effective. Suitable for courses on health and aging, gender, disability, and minority studies, this book identifies the Risk Proliferation Syndrome that maximizes the number of people exposed to these risks. Additional Columbia / SSRC books on the privatization of risk and its implications for Americans: Bailouts: Public Money, Private ProfitEdited by Robert E. Wright Disaster and the Politics of InterventionEdited by Andrew Lakoff Health at Risk: America's Ailing Health System-and How to Heal ItEdited by Jacob S. Hacker Laid Off, Laid Low: Political and Economic Consequences of Employment InsecurityEdited by Katherine S. Newman Pensions, Social Security, and the Privatization of RiskEdited by Mitchell A. Orenstein

A comprehensive overview of project risk management, providing guidance on implementing and improving project risk management systems in organizations This book provides a comprehensive overview of project risk management. Besides offering an easy-to-follow, yet systematic approach to project risk management, it also introduces topics which have an important bearing on how risks are managed but which are generally not found in other books, including risk knowledge management, cultural risk-shaping, project complexity, political risks, and strategic risk management. Many new concepts about risk management are introduced. Diagrams and tables, together with project examples and case studies, illustrate the authors’ precepts and ideas. Each chapter in Managing Project Risks begins with an introduction to its topic and ends with a summary. The book starts by providing an understanding and overview of risk and continues with coverage of projects and project stakeholders. Ensuing chapters look at project risk management processes, contexts and risk drivers, identification, assessment and evaluation, response and treatment options, and risk monitoring and control. One chapter focuses entirely on risk knowledge management. Others explore the cultural shaping of risk, political risk in projects, computer applications, and more. The book finishes by examining the current state and potential future of project risk management. In essence, this book: Effectively communicates a conceptual and philosophical understanding of risk Establishes the nature of projects and the stakeholders involved in them Presents a systematic and logically progressive approach to the processes of project risk management Demonstrates how to recognize the drivers of project risks and the factors which shape them Emphasizes the importance of capturing and exploiting project risk knowledge Provides guidance about implementing and building (or improving) project risk management systems in organizations Managing Project Risks will benefit practitioners and students of project management across a wide range of industries and professions.

In today’s market, playing it safe is not an option Lead your company to sustainable success by taking the RIGHT RISKS The business world is in flux, and you have to think and act quickly in order to stay competitive. But the last thing you want to do is make reckless business decisions. You have to find the middle ground. You have to take SMART RISKS. In this groundbreaking book, leadership expert Doug Sundheim explains how to find that precise point between comfort and danger for generating the sustained ability to work at the highest level of performance. Taking Smart Risks reveals the secrets to discovering, planning for, and acting upon the kind of risks that will move your company forward and ahead of the competition. Learn how to: Find Something Worth Fighting For—What do you care enough about to risk time, energy, and money to try to make happen? Determining this is half the battle. See the Future Now—Clarify your big idea in terms of real objectives, plans, and intended results. Act Fast, Learn Fast—Make your move quickly, but be sure you don’t squander valuable resources in the process. Communicate Powerfully—Assume communication will break down at points, plan accordingly—and don’t shy away from the tough conversations. Create a Smart Risk Culture— Build teams that share the same mindsets and values about expected smart risk behavior. Applying Sundheim’s advice will help you let go of old assumptions, explore new possibilities, move your organization out of its comfort zone, and experience long-term success. When you take smart risks, you will create. You will innovate. You will grow. And you will WIN. “From Sherwin Williams to Moo.com, Doug Sundheim is onto something here: your work is worth fighting for. A worthy read for everyone in your organization.” —Seth Godin, Author, The Icarus Deception “The risk-taking concepts in this book lie at the heart of effective leadership. Using case studies and stories from executives who have ‘been there, done that,’ Doug Sundheim teaches us that sometimes the most dangerous thing to do—in business and life—is to play it safe.” —Marshall Goldsmith, million-selling author of the New York Times bestsellers MOJO and What Got You Here Won’t Get You There “Sundheim delivers a message that every business needs to hear right now: excessive risk will kill you, but so will complacency. . . . If you’re charged with driving growth in your organization, buy this book—but more importantly, use it.” —Jed Hartman, Group Publisher, Fortune & CNNMoney.com “A spectacular book! The stories were powerful, the advice was crystal clear, and every few pages called me to action. I have bookmarked more pages in Taking Smart Risks than I have in any book since reading Peter Drucker’s classics.” —Michael Hejtmanek, President & CEO, Hasselblad Bron Inc. “Doug Sundheim does an excellent job of demonstrating not only how to take smart risks, but also how to lead the process of risk-taking—a critical skill set for leaders today.” —Cindy Zollinger, President & CEO, Cornerstone Research “A compelling case for why smart risk taking is so important in today’s fast-paced, uncertain world.” —Willie Pietersen, Professor, Columbia Business School; former CEO, Tropicana and Seagram USA

"This sobering description of many computer-related failures throughout our world deflates the hype and hubris of the industry. Peter Neumann analyzes the failure modes, recommends sequences for prevention and ends his unique book with some broadening reflections on the future." —Ralph Nader, Consumer Advocate This book is much more than a collection of computer mishaps; it is a serious, technically oriented book written by one of the world's leading experts on computer risks. The book summarizes many real events involving computer technologies and the people who depend on those technologies, with widely ranging causes and effects. It considers problems attributable to hardware, software, people, and natural causes. Examples include disasters (such as the Black Hawk helicopter and Iranian Airbus shootdowns, the Exxon Valdez, and various transportation accidents); malicious hacker attacks; outages of telephone systems and computer networks; financial losses; and many other strange happenstances (squirrels downing power grids, and April Fool's Day pranks). Computer-Related Risks addresses problems involving reliability, safety, security, privacy, and human well-being. It includes analyses of why these cases happened and discussions of what might be done to avoid recurrences of similar events. It is readable by technologists as well as by people merely interested in the uses and limits of technology. It is must reading for anyone with even a remote involvement with computers and communications—which today means almost everyone. Computer-Related Risks: Presents comprehensive coverage of many different types of risks Provides an essential system-oriented perspective Shows how technology can affect your life—whether you like it or not!