Operational risk is emerging as the third leg of an institutional risk strategy for financial institutions. Now recognized as a potential source of financial waste, operational risk has become the subject of surveys, analysis, and the search for a comprehenvise set of definitions and a shared framework. Written by a leading expert on operational risk measurement, this important work puts forth a cradle-to-grave hands-on approach that concentrates on measurement of risk in order to provide the needed feedback for managing and mitigating it. Using both theoretical and practical material, he lays out a foundation theory that can be applied and refined for application in the financial sector and beyond which includes a new technique called Delta-EVT(trademark). This technique is a combination of two existing methods which provides for the complete measurement of operational risk loss. The book contains comprehensive step-by-step descriptions based on real-world examples, formulas and procedures for calculating many common risk measures and building causal models using Bayesian networks, and background for understanding the history and motivation for addressing operational risk.

Meeting a vital need, this book helps clinicians rapidly identify risks for suicidal behavior and manage an at-risk teen's ongoing care. It provides clear guidelines for conducting suicide risk screenings and comprehensive risk assessments and implementing immediate safety-focused interventions, as well as longer-term treatment plans. Designed for day-to-day use in private practice, schools, or other settings, the volume is grounded in a strong evidence base. It features quick-reference clinical pointers, sample dialogues with teens and parents, and reproducible assessment and documentation tools. Most of the reproducible materials can be downloaded and printed in a convenient 8 1/2" x 11" size. Winner (First Place)--American Journal of Nursing Book of the Year Award, Child Health Category

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

The life of Princess Kalendria, the younger sister of King Korram, should be full of excitement and privilege. Instead, her family is constantly undermined by those who think they could rule Malorn better than her brother. Desperate to lighten the mood in the palace, and hoping to make her seventeenth birthday special while she’s at it, Kalendria plans a lavish ball. But a sinister plot to assassinate the king and his powerful ally, King Jaymin of Alasia, soon threatens to ruin her plans. Faced with no other choice, the trio flees into the wilderness in a desperate attempt to escape their unknown assassins. With her brother's throne and their lives at stake, Kalendria is determined to uncover the truth before war destroys both kingdoms. Can she help reclaim her brother's throne, and maybe catch Jaymin's attention while she's at it, before it's too late?

OVER 1 MILLION COPIES SOLD: Instagram guru Vex King “teaches us how self-love is the key to unlocking your inner greatness” (Marie Claire) and shares inspirational quotes and universal wisdom for manifesting positive vibes. Join the self-love revolution—and be the best version of you that YOU can be! Vex overcame adversity to become a source of hope for millions of young people, and now draws from his personal experience and his intuitive wisdom to inspire you to: · Practise self-care, overcome toxic energy, and prioritize your well-being · Cultivate positive lifestyle habits, including mindfulness and meditation · Change your beliefs to invite great opportunities into your life · Manifest your goals using tried-and-tested techniques · Overcome fear and flow with the Universe · Find your higher purpose and become a shining light for others In this beautiful, giftable book, Vex will show you that when you change the way you think, feel, speak, and act, you begin to change the world.

The "breathtakingly brilliant" novel by the author of Infinite Jest (New York Times) is a deeply compelling and satisfying story, as hilarious and fearless and original as anything Wallace ever wrote. The agents at the IRS Regional Examination Center in Peoria, Illinois, appear ordinary enough to newly arrived trainee David Foster Wallace. But as he immerses himself in a routine so tedious and repetitive that new employees receive boredom-survival training, he learns of the extraordinary variety of personalities drawn to this strange calling. And he has arrived at a moment when forces within the IRS are plotting to eliminate even what little humanity and dignity the work still has. The Pale King remained unfinished at the time of David Foster Wallace's death, but it is a deeply compelling and satisfying novel, hilarious and fearless and as original as anything Wallace ever undertook. It grapples directly with ultimate questions -- questions of life's meaning and of the value of work and society -- through characters imagined with the interior force and generosity that were Wallace's unique gifts. Along the way it suggests a new idea of heroism and commands infinite respect for one of the most daring writers of our time. "The Pale King is by turns funny, shrewd, suspenseful, piercing, smart, terrifying, and rousing." --Laura Miller, Salon

In Necessary Risks, Teri McDowell Ott explores her wrestling, as a privileged white Christian woman, with ten risks and the underlying systems and structures that need to be changed. Such risks, she argues, transform individuals and communities, creating a path toward a more equitable and just world.