1. Introduction. 1.1. Formulating the risk problem. 1.2. Decision criteria. 1.3. Decision making under risk : fact and fiction -- 2. Probability theory - a mathematical basis for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. 2.1. Set theory and probability. 2.2. Random variables. 2.3. Conditional probability and independence. 2.4. Some useful distribution functions. 2.5. Expected value, moments, and the moment generating function. 2.6. Estimating probability functions. 2.7. Martingales and random walks. 2.8. Summary -- 3. Expected utility - the economic basis of decision making under risk. 3.1. Consumption and utility. 3.2. Expected utility. 3.3. Expected value - variance and expected utility models. 3.4. Problems with expected utility. 3.5. Summary -- 4. Risk aversion in the large and small. 4.1. Arrow-Pratt risk aversion coefficient. 4.2. Eliciting risk aversion coefficients. 4.3 Summary -- 5. Portfolio theory and decision making under risk. 5.1. The expected value - variance frontier. 5.2. A simple portfolio. 5.3. A graphical depiction of the expected value-variance frontier. 5.4. Mean-variance versus direct utility maximization. 5.5. Derivation of the expected value-variance frontier. 5.6. Summary -- 6. Whole farm-planning models. 6.1. Farm portfolio models. 6.2. Minimize total absolute deviation. 6.3. Focus-loss. 6.4. Target MOTAD. 6.5. Direct utility maximization. 6.6. Discrete sequential stochastic programming. 6.7. Chance-constrained programming. 6.8. Interpreting shadow values from risk programming models. 6.9. Summary -- 7. Risk efficiency approaches - stochastic dominance. 7.1. Stochastic dominance. 7.2. Applications of stochastic dominance. 7.3. Summary -- 8. Dynamic decision rules and the value of information. 8.1. Decision making and Bayesian probabilities. 8.2. Concepts of information. 8.3. A model of information. 8.4. Summary -- 9. Market models of decision making under risk. 9.1. Risk equilibrium from the consumer's point of view. 9.2. The role of the riskless asset. 9.3. Risk equilibrium from the firm's perspective. 9.4. Arbitrage pricing theorem. 9.5. Empirical applications of capital market models. 9.6. Summary -- 10. Option pricing approaches to risk. 10.1. Introductions to options and futures. 10.2. Real option valuation. 10.3. Crop insurance. 10.4. Summary -- 11. State contingent production model : the stochastic production set. 11.1. Depicting risk and input decisions in the production function. 11.2. State Production set and input requirement set. 11.3. Distance functions and risk aversion. 11.4. Summary -- 12. Risk, uncertainty, and the agricultural firm - a summary and outlook

Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of the popular textbook includes updated chapters on theory and methods and contains a new chapter discussing the state-contingent approach to the analysis of production and the use of copulas to better model stochastic dependency. Aiming to introduce agricultural decision making, probability and risk preference, this book is an indispensable guide for students and researchers of agriculture and agribusiness management.

After all the research on agricultural risk to date, the treatment of risk in agricultural research is far from harmonious. Many competing risk models have been proposed. Some new methodologies are largely untested. Some of the leading empirical methodologies in agricultural economic research are poorly suited for problems with aggregate data where risk averse behavior is less likely to be important. This book is intended to (i) define the current state of the literature on agricultural risk research, (ii) provide a critical evaluation of economic risk research on agriculture to date and (iii) set a research agenda that will meet future needs and prospects. This type of research promises to become of increasing importance because agricultural policy in the United States and elsewhere has decidedly shifted from explicit income support objectives to risk-related motivations of helping farmers deal with risk. Beginning with the 1996 Farm Bill, the primary set of policy instruments from U.S. agriculture has shifted from target prices and set aside acreage to agricultural crop insurance. Because this book is intended to have specific implications for U.S. agricultural policy, it has a decidedly domestic scope, but clearly many of the issues have application abroad. For each of the papers and topics included in this volume, individuals have been selected to give the strongest and broadest possible treatment of each facet of the problem. The result is this comprehensive reference book on the economics of agricultural risk.

Presents an alternative theoretical framework that can serve as the basis for a new age of economic analysis under risk and uncertainty. This work features an endogenous theory that overcomes the major shortcomings of both the expected utility and the rank-dependent models while it possesses the merits of both.