This title was first published in 2003. This text presents a new approach to incorporating regional details on production in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model. The early studies on disequilibrium dealt with either partial-adjustment models or models involving excess demand or supplies in markets. In this study the authors consider a different type of disequilibrium model - one in which econometric analysis makes use of the varying coefficients stochastic production frontier approach, which permits estimation and analysis of production efficiencies of individual producers. The book also presents an innovative approach to production modelling in macro econometric models as it provides a useful framework for incorporating production efficiencies and regional details of production in the macro models. It is a pioneering study that combines the stochastic frontier approach with macro econometric modelling. Primarily focused on India, it also provides insights into problems in modelling economies of other developing countries.

This book presents a new approach to incorporating regional details on production in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model. The early studies on disequilibrium dealt with either partial-adjustment models or models involving excess demand or supplies in markets. This study delves further, by considering a different type of disequilibrium model - one in which econometric analysis makes use of the varying coefficients stochastic production frontier approach, which permits estimation and analysis of production efficiencies of individual producers. The diverse regional agricultural production conditions in India provide an appropriate basis for application of the methodology developed in this study by providing a perspective on regional implications of selected policy measures impacting on agriculture, either directly or indirectly.

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

This collection presents the difficult challenges of the new economic era as well as a set of alternative economic policies for managing the open Latin American economies of the early twenty-first century. Ideas that were removed from the reform agenda over the past two decades are seen as critical to the improved economic and social performance that liberalization has so far failed to produce. These ideas include a role for counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies, including restrictions on capital mobility; active productive sector and technological development policies; and the need to pay greater attention not only to social policies, but also to the links between economic policies and social outcomes, in order to guarantee a desirable social performance. This collection sheds new light on issues that were largely overlooked during the reform period, and that must be faced squarely to overcome the deficiencies that Latin America has faced during its phase of liberalization and its dismal economic performance since the Asian crisis.

In the past, foreign shocks arrived to national economies mainly through trade channels, and transmissions of such shocks took time to come into effect. However, after capital globalization, shocks spread to markets almost immediately. Despite the increasing macroeconomic dangers that the situation generated at emerging markets in the South, nobody at the North was ready to acknowledge the pro-cyclicality of the financial system and the inner weakness of “decontrolled” financial innovations because they were enjoying from the “great moderation.” Monetary policy was primarily centered on price stability objectives, without considering the mounting credit and asset price booms being generated by market liquidity and the problems generated by this glut. Mainstream economists, in turn, were not majorly attracted in integrating financial factors in their models. External pressures on emerging market economies (EMEs) were not eliminated after 2008, but even increased as international capital flows augmented in relevance thereafter. Initially economic authorities accurately responded to the challenge, but unconventional monetary policies in the US began to create important spillovers in EMEs. Furthermore, in contrast to a previous surge in liquidity, funds were now transmitted to EMEs throughout the bond market. The perspective of an increase in US interest rates by the FED is generating a reversal of expectations and a sudden flight to quality. Emerging countries’ currencies began to experience higher volatility levels, and depreciation movements against a newly strong US dollar are also increasingly observed. Consequently, there are increasing doubts that the “unexpected” favorable outcome observed in most EMEs at the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) would remain.

By comparing countries like Venezuela and Chile, China and India, Dominican Republic and Haiti, and others, the book tries to answer the questions of which institutions and policies are crucial for stable long term economic growth.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.