In 2001, Martin Leibowitz organized an Equity Risk Premium (ERP) Forum for CFA Institute, in which the participants discussed issues related to the ERP and made estimates for the future. This forum was repeated by Leibowitz, Brett Hammond, and Laurence Siegel in 2011, setting a precedent for a decennial forum. Siegel organized and moderated the discussion in 2021, and the proceedings from that event make up the current book. The participants in 2021 were (in alphabetical order) Robert Arnott, Clifford Asness, Mary Ida Compton, Elroy Dimson, William Goetzmann, Roger Ibbotson, Antti Ilmanen, Martin Leibowitz, Rajnish Mehra, Thomas Philips, and Jeremy Siegel. Each participant made a presentation, which was then discussed by the whole group. Finally, a roundtable discussion involving all of the participants was moderated by Laurence Siegel. Ibbotson and Dimson discussed historical returns in different countries. Ibbotson focused on the United States, while Dimson took a global industrial-country view. The history goes back almost a century (Ibbotson) or more than a century (Dimson), providing a look at how returns have evolved over a wide variety of conditions. Ibbotson also presented his method for making probabilistic forecasts of returns. Dimson, who is British, showed that “American exceptionalism” is one way to understand the results. Asness looked at the effectiveness of Robert Shiller’s CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) valuation measure for forecasting. Valuations rose over the period he studied, and a lively discussion was had about why this may have occurred. Arnott focused on the growth rate of dividends, which has been very slow in per-share terms, and argued (with much debate from the other participants) that buybacks are only a partial substitute for dividends. Leibowitz, also looking at valuation as the lodestone of return forecasts, set forth a “growth adjustment” that brought his forecast in line with those made by others. Compton, a consultant to pension plans, discussed the challenges of communicating lower expected returns to clients. She also emphasized that expected returns “don’t always come true,” they’re just someone’s best forecast. Ilmanen broke up the expected return into its component parts: dividends, real growth, inflation, and so forth. Doing this, he said, allows one to debate the estimates for each part and ascertain how accurate each of the estimates is. Philips started by presenting a method for forecasting bond returns. He then turned to equities, for which he compared forecasts with subsequent realizations using a variety of forecast methods. Mehra discussed a number of issues related to the existence of premiums (equity risk, value, small cap, and so forth) and concluded that, although some of these are unstable, the ERP is highly stable. Jeremy Siegel advocated a “back to basics” approach using dividend and earnings yields, dividend and earnings growth rates, payout ratios, and price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasized that earnings can be calculated in a number of different way, and said that accounting practices have become more conservative over the years. Goetzmann concluded the session by reporting that one company, a water mill in France, had almost 600 years of historical return data and that an asset pricing model could be tested using those data. According to this model, the stock price is the present value of expected future dividends and is supported by the evidence. In sum, because of high valuations and low interest rates, the participants expect lower total returns in the future than in the past. A forward-looking ERP of 4% to 5% was the consensus of the group.

In this paper, we provide an overview of the concerns surrounding the variations in the calculation of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) across banks and jurisdictions and how this might undermine the Basel III capital adequacy framework. We discuss the key drivers behind the differences in these calculations, drawing upon a sample of systemically important banks from Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific. We then discuss a range of policy options that could be explored to fix the actual and perceived problems with RWAs, and improve the use of risk-sensitive capital ratios.

Discover the official resource for success on the 2025 CFA Level III exam. Get your copy of the CFA Program Curriculum now. The 2025 CFA Program Curriculum Level III Box Set contains the content you need to perform well on the Level III CFA exam in 2025. Designed for candidates to use for exam preparation and professional reference purposes, this set includes the full official curriculum for Level III and is part of the larger CFA Candidate Body of Knowledge (CBOK). Developed to prepare you for the Level III exam's heavy reliance on information synthesis and solution application within the core curriculum as well as the portfolio management, private markets and private wealth pathways, the Level III curriculum will help you master both calculation-based and word-based problems. The 2025 CFA Program Curriculum Level III Box Set allows you to: Develop critical knowledge and skills essential in the industry. Learn from financial thought leaders. Access market-relevant instruction. The set also features practice questions to assist with your mastery of key terms, concepts, and formulas. The volumes in the Level III box set are: Core Curriculum Volume 1: Asset Allocation Volume 2: Portfolio Construction Volume 3: Performance Measurement Volume 4: Derivatives And Risk Management Volume 5: Ethical and Professional Standards Private Wealth Volume 1: Private Wealth Pathway Volume 2: Private Wealth Pathway Indispensable for anyone preparing for the 2025 Level III CFA exam, the 2025 CFA Program Curriculum Level III Box Set is a must-have resource for those seeking the advanced skills required to become a Chartered Financial Analyst.

At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

Your complete guide to quantitative analysis in the investment industry Quantitative Investment Analysis, Third Edition is a newly revised and updated text that presents you with a blend of theory and practice materials to guide you through the use of statistics within the context of finance and investment. With equal focus on theoretical concepts and their practical applications, this approachable resource offers features, such as learning outcome statements, that are targeted at helping you understand, retain, and apply the information you have learned. Throughout the text's chapters, you explore a wide range of topics, such as the time value of money, discounted cash flow applications, common probability distributions, sampling and estimation, hypothesis testing, and correlation and regression. Applying quantitative analysis to the investment process is an important task for investment pros and students. A reference that provides even subject matter treatment, consistent mathematical notation, and continuity in topic coverage will make the learning process easier—and will bolster your success. Explore the materials you need to apply quantitative analysis to finance and investment data—even if you have no previous knowledge of this subject area Access updated content that offers insight into the latest topics relevant to the field Consider a wide range of subject areas within the text, including chapters on multiple regression, issues in regression analysis, time-series analysis, and portfolio concepts Leverage supplemental materials, including the companion Workbook and Instructor's Manual, sold separately Quantitative Investment Analysis, Third Edition is a fundamental resource that covers the wide range of quantitative methods you need to know in order to apply quantitative analysis to the investment process.

In 2001, a small group of academics and practitioners met to discuss the equity risk premium (ERP). Ten years later, in 2011, a similar discussion took place, with participants writing up their thoughts for this volume. The result is a rich set of papers that practitioners may find useful in developing their own approach to the subject.

Edited by Rajnish Mehra, this volume focuses on the equity risk premium puzzle, a term coined by Mehra and Prescott in 1985 which encompasses a number of empirical regularities in the prices of capital assets that are at odds with the predictions of standard economic theory.