Audience: Anyone concerned with the science, techniques and ideas of how decisions are made."--BOOK JACKET.

This book combines a model reduction technique with an efficient parametrization scheme for the purpose of solving a class of complex and computationally expensive simulation-based problems involving finite element models. These problems, which have a wide range of important applications in several engineering fields, include reliability analysis, structural dynamic simulation, sensitivity analysis, reliability-based design optimization, Bayesian model validation, uncertainty quantification and propagation, etc. The solution of this type of problems requires a large number of dynamic re-analyses. To cope with this difficulty, a model reduction technique known as substructure coupling for dynamic analysis is considered. While the use of reduced order models alleviates part of the computational effort, their repetitive generation during the simulation processes can be computational expensive due to the substantial computational overhead that arises at the substructure level. In this regard, an efficient finite element model parametrization scheme is considered. When the division of the structural model is guided by such a parametrization scheme, the generation of a small number of reduced order models is sufficient to run the large number of dynamic re-analyses. Thus, a drastic reduction in computational effort is achieved without compromising the accuracy of the results. The capabilities of the developed procedures are demonstrated in a number of simulation-based problems involving uncertainty.

This book addresses probabilistic methods for the evaluation of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis of these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature of the uncertainties and their interplay is then gradually developed. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text. The modular approach of the book allows the reader to navigate through the different stages of the methods.

Simulation and Monte Carlo is aimed at students studying for degrees in Mathematics, Statistics, Financial Mathematics, Operational Research, Computer Science, and allied subjects, who wish an up-to-date account of the theory and practice of Simulation. Its distinguishing features are in-depth accounts of the theory of Simulation, including the important topic of variance reduction techniques, together with illustrative applications in Financial Mathematics, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and Discrete Event Simulation. Each chapter contains a good selection of exercises and solutions with an accompanying appendix comprising a Maple worksheet containing simulation procedures. The worksheets can also be downloaded from the web site supporting the book. This encourages readers to adopt a hands-on approach in the effective design of simulation experiments. Arising from a course taught at Edinburgh University over several years, the book will also appeal to practitioners working in the finance industry, statistics and operations research.