Korean families are changing fast. While birth rates remain low, Koreans are marrying and starting a family later than ever before, if at all. Couple-with-children households, the dominant household type in Korea until recently, will soon make up fewer than one quarter of all households. These changes will have a profound effect on Korea’s future. Among other things, the Korean labour force is set to decline by about 2.5 million workers by 2040, with potential major implications for economic performance and the sustainability of public finances.

In recent years Korea has stepped up efforts to reduce inequalities in recognition that a fairer economic model is also the most sustainable one. In order to support this new policy direction, the OECD has carried out novel analysis of inclusive growth building on its Framework for Policy Action, developed by the OECD to improve the prospects of the groups left behind.

The series Investing in Youth builds on the expertise of the OECD on youth employment, social support and skills. The report on Korea presents new results from a comprehensive analysis of the situation of young people in Korea, exploiting various sources of survey-based and administrative data.

Economic activity has contracted less in Korea than in other OECD countries, thanks to the prompt and effective reaction of the authorities to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus and to the wide-ranging government support to households and businesses. Nevertheless, the pandemic generates strong headwinds.

Korea’s economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on potential growth from these factors and discusses policies that could provide offsetting upward momentum by facilitating structural transformation. We find that potential output growth slowed to about 21⁄2 percent before the COVID-19 pandemic and would have fallen to 2 percent by 2030, mainly due to demographic factors. Moreover, there is a possibility of scarring from the COVID-19 shock as adjustment frictions from structural rigidities interact with shifts in demand and supply patterns, lowering investment and labor force participation. At the same time, industry-level analysis suggests ample scope to raise productivity, especially in services where productivity gains have lagged. Addressing these rigidities could offset a large proportion of the expected downward pressure on potential output.

Sound health management and supportive policies helped Korea emerge swiftly from the pandemic. The recovery is set to continue as pandemic-era restrictions on contact-intensive services are shelved, despite the Russia-Ukraine war raising inflation and highlighting the need to increase supply chain resilience.

Many people with health problems or disabilities leave the labour market permanently even if they still can and want to work. This can lead to low income and reduced social engagement.