This paper measures the volatility of manufacturing employment in different Canadian regions for the period 1976-97. It first examines the structural characteristics of regional economies and relates them to their levels of employment volatility. The analysis then focuses on testing whether diversity, growth, plant size and export intensity are empirically related to volatility levels. The analysis also examines whether increases in export orientation of a region over the levels. The analysis also examines whether increases in export orientation of a region over the study period were associated with changes in industry specialization and employment volatility.

Utilizing a longitudinal micro data file of manufacturing plants (1974 to 1999), this study tests the effect of higher levels of trade on the level of industrial specialization experienced by regional manufacturing economies. Consistent with trade driven by comparative advantage, the analysis demonstrates that higher levels of export intensity (exports as a share of output) across regions are associated with greater industrial specialization. However, the analysis also shows that changes in export intensity are only weakly associated with changes in specialization. This occurs because comparative advantage tends to shift away from industries that account for a large share of regional manufacturing employment and towards industries that initially have lower shares. This ebb and flow of comparative advantage helps to explain why Canadian manufacturing regions have not become more specialized in an environment of increasing integration into the world market.

Utilizing a longitudinal micro data file of manufacturing plants (1974 to 1999), this study tests the effect of higher levels of trade on the level of industrial specialization experienced by regional manufacturing economies. This paper explores the following questions regarding the link between trade and industrial specialization: is there a positive association between the level of trade and the level of industrial specialization of regional economies; in which regions is the effect of higher levels of trade on specialization strongest; what is the association between growing trade and industrial specialization; and what underlies the weak association between growing trade and industrial specialization?--Includes text from document.

While there is a broad consensus that North American economic integration has benefits for Canadians' standard of living, there are also concerns that deeper economic integration may restrict Canada's ability to pursue domestic goals in a number of important areas. To address these issues, Industry Canada and the former Human Resources Development Canada jointly commissioned original research for a Workshop on 'Social and labour Market Aspects of North American Linkage'. This volume contains the research papers, comments and panel proceedings from the Workshop.

The 1980s and 1990s have seen a rising share of skilled labour in total employment in the manufacturing sector of Canada. At the same time, the wage premium for skilled workers has increased, thereby increasing the inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. There is a disagreement about the causes of these changes. Several hypotheses have been offered to explain them - increased international competition, changes in the relative supply of more-skilled versus less-skilled workers, and skilled-augmenting technological change. This paper analyzes the nature, pattern and causes of the shifts in the composition of employment in manufacturing. The paper describes the composition of employment in manufacturing. It focuses on the direction and magnitude of shifts in the proportion of nonproduction workers employed within manufacturing and across sectors within manufacturing. It also investigates the extent to which wage differentials between nonproduction and production workers have widened in the 1980s. In addition, it assesses the extent to which these changes are associated with trade and technology use. The results indicate that the rising wage differentials are associated with both increased trade intensity and the types of technologies that are being used in the plant.

Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.

China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.