In the ongoing Doha Development Round of World Trade Organization negotiations, developing countries have had much greater leverage, due at least in part to their large and growing share of world trade. But will the increased influence of developing countries translate into a final agreement that is truly more development-friendly? What would be key ingredients in such a final outcome of the negotiations, and what would the developing countries really get out of it. This two volume set seeks to answer these questions. This volume (Volume 2) addresses the question of how a development-friendly outcome to the talks would affect developing countries by quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform. It presents several different approaches to modeling the effects of the outcome of negotiations, and then investigates why these (and other) modeling efforts produce such divergent results. Volume 1 is issues-oriented. It takes up some key questions in the negotiations, setting the stage with a historical overview of the Doha Development Agenda to help identify issues of most significance to developing countries, and then explores select issues in greater depth. Aimed at policymakers and stakeholders, this two-volume effort puts into the public domain important analytical work that will improve the chance for a pro-development outcomes of the Doha round negotiations.

In the ongoing Doha Development Round of World Trade Organization negotiations, developing countries have had much greater leverage, due at least in part to their large and growing share of world trade. But will the increased influence of developing countries translate into a final agreement that is truly more development-friendly? What would be key ingredients in such a final outcome of the negotiations, and what would the developing countries really get out of it. This two volume set seeks to answer these questions. This volume (Volume 1) is issues-oriented. It takes up some key questions in the negotiations, setting the stage with a historical overview of the Doha Development Agenda to help identify issues of most significance to developing countries, and then explores select issues in greater depth. Volume 2 addresses the question of how a development-friendly outcome to the talks would affect developing countries by quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform. It presents several different approaches to modeling the effects of the outcome of negotiations, and then investigates why these (and other) modeling efforts produce such divergent results. Aimed at policymakers and stakeholders, this two-volume effort puts into the public domain important analytical work that will improve the chance for a pro-development outcomes of the Doha round negotiations.

This second volume of the two-volume set presents several different approaches to modeling the effects of the outcome of the Doha negotiations, and investigates why these (and other) modeling efforts produce such divergent results. By comparing and contrasting these approaches, it helps readers develop a clearer understanding of the mechanics and implications of modeling techniques, and also guides them in interpreting the relevance and accuracy of the plethora of news reports on different models.

This study reviews policy developments in recent years and, in the light of that, explores ways in which further consensus might be reached among WTO members to reduce farm trade distortions – and thereby also progress the multilateral trade reform agenda. Particular attention is given to ways that would boost well-being in developing countries, especially for those food-insecure households still suffering from poverty and hunger.

Presents several different approaches to modeling the effects of the outcome of the Doha negotiations, and investigates why these (and other) modeling efforts produce such divergent results. By comparing and contrasting these approaches, this work helps readers develop an understanding of the mechanics and implications of modeling techniques.

The Uruguay Round trade negotiations marked a historic turning point in the reform of agricultural trade. The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) replaced nontariff barriers with bound tariffs, curbed export subsidies, and codified domestic agricultural programs. Unfortunately, the URAA bound many of the tariffs that replaced nontariff barriers too high, it legitimized export subsidies, and it left the domestic farm policies of the major industrial countries largely untouched. Fortunately, regional trade institutions have also begun to grapple with agricultural trade liberalization. Agriculture was featured in the Mercosur agreement, in recent agreements between the European Union and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, and in the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). Plans for broad supraregional trade structures, such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), have also dealt with the inclusion of agricultural trade. Meanwhile, in developing and middle-income countries, unilateral agricultural policy reforms have been part of recent economic policy changes. However, in the industrial countries, agricultural policy reform has languished in the face of much domestic opposition. But the reform of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1992 and the 1996 Farm Bill in the United States seems to have ushered in a new era of relations between government and agricultural groups. The author points out ways that multilateral, regional, and unilateral paths could be coordinated to liberalized agricultural trade. He proposes a set of multilateral talks that would benefit from agricultural reform at all levels and complete the job begun at the Uruguay Round.