The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in import and export demand in China and India on the United States and global agriculture in 2020. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize production and trade in China, India, and other major importing and exporting regions in the world. This research focuses on four primary crops: wheat, corn, rice and soybeans. In the model, China and India are divided into 31 and 14 regions, respectively. The model also includes five exporting countries and ten importing countries/regions. The results indicate that India will be able to stay largely self-sufficient in 2020 and China will increase its soybean and corn imports to meet rising domestic demand. The research also gives perspectives on production and trade in the United States and other major exporting and importing countries.

This title was first published in 2003. This prominent and commanding volume collates the best research available on China's agricultural trade. Critically analyzing the agricultural supply and demand factors that underlie trade patterns such as agricultural productivity and policy, it also explores China's agricultural trade and policy including implications for China and elsewhere. Long term issues and productivity growth are taken into consideration, as are specific issues such as WTO accession. The slate of authors combines the leading established scholars in the field and the best of the next generation, including those from China and the West.

It is a cliché that China is the world's manufactured goods factory, but most observers are just as certain that China's farmers are a serious burden on growth. Yet China in fact has the makings of an internationally competitive agricultural sector, with the market setting most prices, farmers shifting quickly toward what they produce best, and significant research and development focused on biotechnology and other promising areas. China's trade interests are changing as its farmers become more competitive, and this transformation will have major implications for world trade talks and global economic welfare. This study traces the steps China has taken to make agriculture a winning sector, the evidence that its initiatives are working, and the course the country is likely to take.

Part I - China's rapid economic growth and its implications for agriculture and food security in China and the rest of the world; Part II - Indian agriculture and scenario for 2020.

China and India are the most extraordinary economic success stories of the developing world. Both nations’ economies have grown dramatically over the past few decades, elevating them from two of the world’s poorest countries into projected economic superpowers. As a result, the numbers of Chinese and Indians living in poverty have rapidly fallen and per capita incomes in China and India have quadrupled and doubled, respectively. This book investigates the reasons for these staggering accomplishments and the lessons that can be applied both to other developing nations and to the problem of poverty that remains in these two countries. The contributors pay particular attention to agriculture and the rural economy, examining how initial conditions and investments and the prioritization and sequencing of different policies and strategies have led to successes, and how the agricultural and rural sectors connect to overall economic expansion. They also emphasize the importance of anti-poverty programs and safety nets in helping poor people escape poverty. The book offers a set of policy and strategic options for future growth and poverty reduction. These include setting the right priorities for public spending, identifying trade and market reforms, building social safety nets for the poorest of the poor, and building accountable institutions that can provide public goods and services effectively. The book concludes by examining future challenges to China and India’s economic development, such as the need to ensure growth that is sustainable, equitable, and environmentally friendly. The Dragon and the Elephant offers valuable insights to development specialists anxious to multiply the benefits experienced by two of the greatest economic successes in recent times.

Chinese agriculture has experienced some radical changes over the past twenty years. Following the successful introduction of the household production system in the early 1980s, difficulties were encountered in establishing a unified domestic agricultural market in the later 1980s and 1990s. Through a comprehensive analysis of the changes in the Chinese agricultural institutions between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s, this study attempts to provide some answers to the main questions presently facing the agricultural sector. It focuses on the key elements of the pre-reform agricultural institutions, reviews the ways these institutions were refashioned and assesses the resulting changes in agricultural development. The implications of different policy choices are carefully considered with the assistance of a computable general equilibrium model. The author argues that China should push forward with its market-oriented reform measures and introduce the rigours of international competition into the agricultural sector.