Drawing on scholars across several disciplines and perspectives, CSIS conducted a year-long study that sought to provide policymakers with a clearer understanding of Russia's strategic motivations and objectives, and to lay out a comprehensive strategy to secure U.S. and transatlantic interests in the face of the complex Russia challenge set.

These are turbulent times for American foreign policy. Nowhere are the challenges facing the United States more evident than in U.S. policy toward Russia. Drawing on scholars across several disciplines and perspectives, CSIS conducted a year-long study that sought to achieve two goals. First, to provide policymakers with a clearer understanding of Russia’s strategic motivations and objectives, along with the tools it uses to advance its goals. Second, to lay out a comprehensive strategy to secure U.S. and transatlantic interests in the face of the complex Russia challenge set.

This volume identifies the main drivers of the current Sino-Russian relationship, assesses whether-and under what conditions-China and Russia would cooperate more extensively and effectively against American interests, and recommends U.S. policies that could prevent such an outcome. Most experts argue that economic interdependence, nuclear weapons, and the U.S. contribution to maintaining the global commons mean that China and Russia will generally accept U.S. military superiority and U.S. political supremacy in managing global affairs. An agreement between these two powerful countries to work against the United States, however, would greatly increase its vulnerabilities. Relations between the governments of China and Russia with the U.S. have worsened in past years. Identifying the various pathways, events, and political, economic, and military drivers that could shape the dynamics of the China-Russia relationship is of critical importance to U.S. security. This book examines the sources, nuances, and manifestations of the ongoing Sino-Russian relationship in order to recommend strategy and policy that could work to U.S. advantage. Written by an author who traveled extensively in both countries in order to conduct research and expert interviews for the work, the book covers the latest developments to include the major changes in Chinese foreign policy under President Xi Jinping and ongoing relations with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

This book argues that critical international and domestic crises, such as the U.S. war in Iraq and the Great Recession, forced President Barack Obama to readjust U.S. foreign policy after over 70 years of American hegemony and defending the global status quo. It examines the range of external pressures and challenges brought on by an increasingly multipolar international system, shifting domestic political forces, and limited foreign policy choices. The book provides an overview of the extent of foreign policy change and continuity in Obama’s foreign policy toward Europe, Asia and the Pacific, and the Middle East. The book assesses domestic and international pressure points in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and the Great Recession that shaped and defined Obama’s foreign policy preferences. The war in Iraq and the Great Recession, in addition to rising economic inequality and hyper-partisanship at home, emerging markets in Asia and the rise of China, and Russian resurgence in Europe and the Middle East, would determine and constrain the extent to which Obama was able to lead U.S. foreign policy and the foreign policymaking process. These ultimately contributed to a more scaled-back and limited U.S. role in the world during Obama’s presidency, culminating in the 2016 presidential election of Donald Trump who promised to turn the U.S. away from globalization and questioned longstanding U.S. alliances. In the end, the theme of “nation-building here at home” under Obama gave way to “America First” under Trump.

This book has highlighted the potential of regional conflicts to escalate and cause a crisis to global security. The cases of conflict in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia demonstrate that regional conflicts can have devastating consequences, including displacement of people, economic devastation, and political instability. It is therefore critical to address regional conflicts and establish preventative measures and effective conflict resolution strategies to prevent them from escalating. Preventative measures can include investment in regional stability and development, and the establishment of diplomatic channels for resolving conflicts. Effective conflict resolution strategies, such as mediation and negotiation, can be used to resolve regional conflicts before they become a crisis.

In 2011, the United States launched its third regime-change attempt in a decade. Like earlier targets, Libya's Muammar Qaddafi had little hope of defeating the forces stacked against him. He seemed to recognize this when calling for a cease-fire just after the intervention began. But by then, the United States had determined it was better to oust him than negotiate and thus backed his opposition. The history of foreign-imposed regime change is replete with leaders like Qaddafi, overthrown after wars they seemed unlikely to win. From the British ouster of Afghanistan's Sher Ali in 1878 to the Soviet overthrow of Hungary's Imre Nagy in 1956, regime change has been imposed on the weak and the friendless. In Toppling Foreign Governments, Melissa Willard-Foster explores the question of why stronger nations overthrow governments when they could attain their aims at the bargaining table. She identifies a central cause—the targeted leader's domestic political vulnerability—that not only gives the leader motive to resist a stronger nation's demands, making a bargain more difficult to attain, but also gives the stronger nation reason to believe that regime change will be comparatively cheap. As long as the targeted leader's domestic opposition is willing to collaborate with the foreign power, the latter is likely to conclude that ousting the leader is more cost effective than negotiating. Willard-Foster analyzes 133 instances of regime change, ranging from covert operations to major military invasions, and spanning over two hundred years. She also conducts three in-depth case studies that support her contention that domestically and militarily weak leaders appear more costly to coerce than overthrow and, as long as they remain ubiquitous, foreign-imposed regime change is likely to endure.

Twenty-five years of relative calm and predictability in relations between Russia and the West enabled European governments largely to neglect their military capabilities for territorial defense and dramatically redraw Northern Europe’s multilateral, regional, and bilateral boundaries, stimulating new institutional and cooperative developments and arrangements. These cooperative patterns of behavior occurred amid a benign security environment, a situation that no longer obtains. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, its military incursion into eastern Ukraine, its substantial military modernization efforts, heightened undersea activity in the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea, and its repeated air violations, the region’s security environment has dramatically worsened. The Baltic Sea and North Atlantic region have returned as a geostrategic focal point. It is vital, therefore, that the United States rethink its security approach to the region—what the authors describe as an Enhanced Northern Presence.