Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts

Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Title Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts PDF eBook
Author Noel Hendrickson
Publisher Rowman & Littlefield
Pages 357
Release 2018-03-29
Genre Political Science
ISBN 1442272325

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The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis
Title Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis PDF eBook
Author David T. Moore
Publisher DIANE Publishing
Pages 158
Release 2010-10
Genre Political Science
ISBN 1437934927

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Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis
Title Intelligence Analysis PDF eBook
Author National Research Council
Publisher National Academies Press
Pages 352
Release 2011-03-08
Genre Social Science
ISBN 0309210925

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The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Title Psychology of Intelligence Analysis PDF eBook
Author Richards J Heuer
Publisher Pickle Partners Publishing
Pages 336
Release 2020-03-05
Genre History
ISBN 1839743050

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In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments

Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments
Title Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments PDF eBook
Author Gheorghe Tecuci
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Pages 285
Release 2016-08-30
Genre Computers
ISBN 1107122600

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Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence.

Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence
Title Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence PDF eBook
Author Katherine Hibbs Pherson
Publisher CQ Press
Pages 568
Release 2020-08-14
Genre Political Science
ISBN 1544374275

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With Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, including: How do I get started? Where is the information I need? What is my argument? How do I convey my message effectively? The Third Edition includes suggested best practices for dealing with digital disinformation, politicization, and AI. Drawing upon their years of teaching and analytic experience, Pherson and Pherson provide a useful introduction to skills that are essential within the intelligence community.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Title Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis PDF eBook
Author Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher CQ Press
Pages 385
Release 2014-05-28
Genre Political Science
ISBN 148331202X

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In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.