"Russia's recent aggression against Ukraine has disrupted nearly a generation of relative peace and stability between Moscow and its Western neighbors and raised concerns about its larger intentions. From the perspective of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the threat to the three Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania -- former Soviet republics, now member states that border Russian territory -- may be the most problematic of these. In a series of war games conducted between summer 2014 and spring 2015, RAND Arroyo Center examined the shape and probable outcome of a near-term Russian invasion of the Baltic states. The games' findings are unambiguous: As presently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members. Fortunately, it will not require Herculean effort to avoid such a failure. Further gaming indicates that a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades -- adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities -- could suffice to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states"--Publisher's web site.

The publication of this issue on Future for Europe marks a new milestone for TPQ. The journal was founded in 2002 and we celebrated its 20th anniversary with the last issue on Artificial Intelligence and Democratic Values. Among many academics and AI policy professionals, it was considered a landmark publication. Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ) now has a new identity as Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ). Our plans to move with this name have been ongoing for a while. The success of the last issue was a perfect illustration of the necessity of this change. TPQ's editorial and curatorial policies have and will continue to reflect a global perspective without sacrificing its roots. This means we will extend our coverage beyond what we currently offer. In the wake of the Russian incursion into the Ukraine, European soil has seen a return of tragedy. As memories of the Second World War on the continent have receded, it has been argued that the European project has lost appeal over the past few decades. This is no longer the case. The war has also exposed the EU's deficiencies and highlighted the fact that it must be reformed to fulfill the needs of the twenty-first century. The Covid-19 pandemic is also one of the most significant events in our lifetime, and it has radically altered the way Europeans perceive their own societies and the world in general. Nonetheless, one of the most important lessons we can learn from these tragic events is that we must show a strong, constant, and united capability to deter and confront acts of violence. Professor Thomas Diez writes that the war in Ukraine fundamentally challenges the post-Cold War international order. In that regard, he believes that alternative visions of a European order should be developed to counter the scenario of a renewed Cold War. The author reassesses the concepts of interdependence, socialization, normative power, and international society in his contribution to uncover some general lessons for the European order, as well as provide concrete suggestions for alternative policy strategies. As he points out, such an order would require more honest engagement, a system of great power management with social links, and a creative approach to thinking about joint institutions and regional overlaps. Professor Knud Erik Jørgensen starts with a timely question: Europe's hour of reckoning? In his view, the hour of reckoning refers to when one must confront past mistakes and determine a course of action. He says Russia's war in Ukraine exposes numerous mistakes Europe made in the past and accelerates the development of a new foreign policy paradigm. As a result, he examines the role played by the emerging policy paradigm in shaping the politics of EU foreign policy. Furthermore, the article argues that the emerging paradigm is closely linked, if not dependent, on the ongoing processes of reckoning, that is, to the extent with which past mistakes are acknowledged. Lastly, the article makes a case that the twin processes of reckoning and paradigm change make up a crucial element of Europe's future. Professor Giuseppe Bertola explores a different perspective. According to her, the common-market project, that after World War II aimed to prevent future wars among European nations, has evolved through crises into a complex and unstable set of policies and institutions to govern the European Union. A pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus and the war in Ukraine strengthened coordination and added issuance of common debt to the supranational policy toolkit. Nevertheless, NextGenEU relies heavily on government subsidies rather than on market incentives, and Russian invasion of the Ukraine demonstrates that economic integration can only shift the boundaries of war from nation-based to those of the integrated economic area. We invite you to learn more about the factors that will shape the future of Europe.

Nations and international organizations are increasingly using sanctions as a means to achieve their foreign policy aims. However, sanctions are ineffective if they are executed without a clear strategy responsive to the nature and changing behavior of the target. In The Art of Sanctions, Richard Nephew offers a much-needed practical framework for planning and applying sanctions that focuses not just on the initial sanctions strategy but also, crucially, on how to calibrate along the way and how to decide when sanctions have achieved maximum effectiveness. Nephew—a leader in the design and implementation of sanctions on Iran—develops guidelines for interpreting targets’ responses to sanctions based on two critical factors: pain and resolve. The efficacy of sanctions lies in the application of pain against a target, but targets may have significant resolve to resist, tolerate, or overcome this pain. Understanding the interplay of pain and resolve is central to using sanctions both successfully and humanely. With attention to these two key variables, and to how they change over the course of a sanctions regime, policy makers can pinpoint when diplomatic intervention is likely to succeed or when escalation is necessary. Focusing on lessons learned from sanctions on both Iran and Iraq, Nephew provides policymakers with practical guidance on how to measure and respond to pain and resolve in the service of strong and successful sanctions regimes.

Provides a detailed analysis of how Russia's understanding of international law has developed Draws on historical, theoretical, and practical perspectives to offer the reader the 'big picture' of Russia's engagement with international law Extensively uses sources and resources in the Russian language, including many which are not easily available to scholars outside of Russia

An assessment of Russia that suggests that we should look beyond traditional means of power to understand its strength and capacity to disrupt international politics. Too often, we are told that Russia plays a weak hand well. But, perhaps the nation's cards are better than we know. Russia ranks significantly behind the US and China by traditional measures of power: GDP, population size and health, and military might. Yet 25 years removed from its mid-1990s nadir following the collapse of the USSR, Russia has become a supremely disruptive force in world politics. Kathryn E. Stoner assesses the resurrection of Russia and argues that we should look beyond traditional means of power to assess its strength in global affairs. Taking into account how Russian domestic politics under Vladimir Putin influence its foreign policy, Stoner explains how Russia has battled its way back to international prominence. From Russia's seizure of the Crimea from Ukraine to its military support for the Assad regime in Syria, the country has reasserted itself as a major global power. Stoner examines these developments and more in tackling the big questions about Russia's turnaround and global future. Stoner marshals data on Russia's political, economic, and social development and uncovers key insights from its domestic politics. Russian people are wealthier than the Chinese, debt is low, and fiscal policy is good despite sanctions and the volatile global economy. Vladimir Putin's autocratic regime faces virtually no organized domestic opposition. Yet, mindful of maintaining control at home, Russia under Putin also uses its varied power capacities to extend its influence abroad. While we often underestimate Russia's global influence, the consequences are evident in the disruption of politics in the US, Syria, and Venezuela, to name a few. Russia Resurrected is an eye-opening reassessment of the country, identifying the actual sources of its power in international politics and why it has been able to redefine the post-Cold War global order.