This study highlights how, through a series of scenarios, public investments promoting agricultural productivity in Uganda could drive growth in agrifood production, with favourable impacts on the economy, on well-being and on poverty, especially in rural areas. Using a modelling tool to represent the Ugandan economy, with its multiple sectors and current fiscal constraints, the study ranked the subsectors of Uganda’s agriculture that, through the productivity impact of public investments representing 0.25 percent of GDP (on average, about 373 billion 2017 Uganda shillings) during the years 2023–2025, will generate the greatest socio-economic benefits, maximizing the cost-effectiveness of the public investments. Generally, economic growth and the welfare of households, as measured by their consumption, will be positively impacted, but the impacts will ultimately depend on the sector that receives the investment, which is shown in a ranking. The agricultural sectors targeted for government investment will increase their output (and food prices will thus fall), and this will stimulate growth in non-agricultural sectors, both by increasing final demand for non-agricultural products and by lowering input prices and fostering upstream processing. Lower food prices will have a significant impact since food represents a relatively large proportion of the consumption basket of poorest households. Furthermore, labour income for rural households will increase with productivity growth, and this will reduce rural poverty. The findings of this study provide important information about the priorities of Uganda’s National Development Plan (NDP) III and vision for agriculture, as well as new priorities to be considered for enabling economic recovery with increased well-being post-COVID-19.

Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted unprecedentedly as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. While the primary sector has relatively been the most resilient, the agriculture sector lacks sufficiently strong productive dynamism and has high rates of informal work and low wages. Investing more in the sector's productive infrastructure would help accelerate economic recovery while improving people’s well-being. A public investment policy should be developed on the basis of evidence, such as that provided in this study. In 21 prospective scenarios that simulate the allocation of additional public investment in productive infrastructure across subsectors of agriculture, equivalent to 0.25 percent of GDP (around MXN 50 billion) between 2021 and 2023, there is an improvement in total and agrifood GDP, and in the well-being of the Mexican people, as measured by private consumption and rural poverty reduction. However, it is recommended that new investment be focused on certain subsectors and that it be financed through foreign borrowing. According to a ranking of subsectors that receive new investment, the sugar cane subsector ranks first in three of the four variables considered (private consumption, total GDP, agrifood GDP and rural poverty). Cereals, mainly maize, but also others (rice, sorghum, oats, barley and other cereals), and the more export-oriented crops, such as flowers and coffee, also appear at the top of the ranking.

Building on the previous work by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) supporting the identification of priority agricultural sectors and possible locations with high agricultural transformation potential in Uganda, this technical study provides more granular information from Ugandan farmers and district agriculture officers on which investments are needed the most to increase productivity. It identifies and ranks the areas for investments in terms of seeds/breeds, fertilizers/veterinary drugs, mechanization, irrigation, extension, research and development (R&D), roads and electrification for five commodity-district pairs (millet in Soroti, maize in Serere, cassava in Lira, goats in Kibaale and coffee in Masaka). The study found that improved seeds/breeds, extension and fertilizers were identified as critical investments across the board. Specifically, a lack of access to improved seeds/breeds, inadequate extension services and suboptimal use of fertilizer (owing to costs, lack of information, or fertilizer quality) were perceived as major constraints. Other important findings highlight a low level of mechanization throughout the value chains, poor R&D and extension linkages, and the high cost of irrigation. On other hand, access to roads and electrification were not considered as major areas needing investment. The study concludes with nine key recommendations for improving commodity-specific investments in selected locations.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

This year’s report should dispel any lingering doubts that the world is moving backwards in its efforts to end hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition in all its forms. We are now only eight years away from 2030, but the distance to reach many of the SDG 2 targets is growing wider each year. There are indeed efforts to make progress towards SDG 2, yet they are proving insufficient in the face of a more challenging and uncertain context. The intensification of the major drivers behind recent food insecurity and malnutrition trends (i.e. conflict, climate extremes and economic shocks) combined with the high cost of nutritious foods and growing inequalities will continue to challenge food security and nutrition. This will be the case until agrifood systems are transformed, become more resilient and are delivering lower cost nutritious foods and affordable healthy diets for all, sustainably and inclusively.

Investing to promote agricultural growth and poverty reduction is a central pillar of the World Bank's current rural strategy, 'Reaching the Rural Poor' (2003). This 'Sourcebook' addresses how to implement the rural strategy, by sharing information on investment options and identifying innovative approaches that will aid the design of future lending programs for agriculture. It provides generic good practices and many examples that demonstrate investment in agriculture can provide rewarding and sustainable returns to development efforts. It is divided into eleven self-contained modules. Each module contains three different types of subunits that can also be stand-alone documents: I. Module Overview II. Agricultural Investment Notes III. Innovative Activity Profiles. The stand-alone nature of the subunits allows flexibility and adaptability of the material. Selected readings and web links are also provided for readers who seek more in-depth information. The 'Sourcebook' draws on a wide range of experiences from donor agencies, governments, institutions, and other groups active in agricultural development. It is an invaluable reference tool for policy makers, professionals, academics and students, and anyone with an interest in agricultural investments.

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.