Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Title | Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Paul R. Garvey |
Publisher | CRC Press |
Pages | 526 |
Release | 2016-01-06 |
Genre | Mathematics |
ISBN | 148221976X |
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Title | Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Paul R. Garvey |
Publisher | |
Pages | |
Release | 2016 |
Genre | Electronic books |
ISBN | 9780429132865 |
A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and prof
Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis
Title | Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Lionel A. Galway |
Publisher | Rand Corporation |
Pages | 43 |
Release | 2007 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 0833040111 |
A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.
An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Title | An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Wendell Phillips Simpson |
Publisher | |
Pages | 32 |
Release | 1994 |
Genre | Economics |
ISBN |
Cost uncertainty analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last several years. The purpose of a cost uncertainty analysis is to identify the cost and schedule implications associated with program uncertainties. Common methods for uncertainty analysis characterize the possible cost and schedule outcomes of a project using a probability density function (pdf). Heuristic methods have been proposed for uncertainty analysis that assume the shape of the total cost pdf is either normally or lognormally distributed. While experienced analysts feel these distributions provide reasonable approximations, little evidence exists to either confirm or refute these presumptions. An experiment is conducted in which number of cost elements, the degree of skewness of the cost elements, and the degree of correlation between cost elements are varied systematically. The resulting total cost pdfs are compared to the heuristic distributions using goodness of fit tests. The results show that the normal distribution provides an excellent approximation for the simulated distributions. Guidelines are offered that help the cost analyst determine whether these heuristics ought to be applied in a cost uncertainty analysis. Cost analysis, Cost uncertainty analysis.
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Title | Uncertainty in Risk Assessment PDF eBook |
Author | Terje Aven |
Publisher | John Wiley & Sons |
Pages | 152 |
Release | 2013-12-17 |
Genre | Mathematics |
ISBN | 1118763068 |
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
COST UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS.
Title | COST UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS. PDF eBook |
Author | Frank J. Husic |
Publisher | |
Pages | 23 |
Release | 1968 |
Genre | |
ISBN |
An important aspect of cost research is the measurement of the uncertainty inherent in the projection of system cost. Only recently have approaches utilizing such tools as statistical decision theory and probability theory been formulated. The study described here explores and evaluates three such techniques: (a) The derivation of moments technique employs equations for deriving the moments and distributions for cost elements and aggregations. (b) The Monte Carlo technique is a simulation routine. (c) The symmetric approximation is a special case of the derivation of moments technique.
Cost Analysis and Estimating
Title | Cost Analysis and Estimating PDF eBook |
Author | Willis R., Jr. Greer |
Publisher | Springer Science & Business Media |
Pages | 302 |
Release | 2012-12-06 |
Genre | Mathematics |
ISBN | 1461209951 |
Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES), provides such a forum. Presen tations will focus on new and improved tools and techniques of cost analysis. This volume is the second in a series. The first was produced in conjunction with the 1989 National Meeting of ICA/NES in Washington, D.C. The articles in this volume, all refereed, were selected from about 100 submitted for presen tation at the Los Angeles meeting.