Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.

Data Analytics in Reservoir Engineering describes the relevance of data analytics for the oil and gas industry, with particular emphasis on reservoir engineering.

Reservoir Characterization is a collection of papers presented at the Reservoir Characterization Technical Conference, held at the Westin Hotel-Galleria in Dallas on April 29-May 1, 1985. Conference held April 29-May 1, 1985, at the Westin Hotel—Galleria in Dallas. The conference was sponsored by the National Institute for Petroleum and Energy Research, Bartlesville, Oklahoma. Reservoir characterization is a process for quantitatively assigning reservoir properties, recognizing geologic information and uncertainties in spatial variability. This book contains 19 chapters, and begins with the geological characterization of sandstone reservoir, followed by the geological prediction of shale distribution within the Prudhoe Bay field. The subsequent chapters are devoted to determination of reservoir properties, such as porosity, mineral occurrence, and permeability variation estimation. The discussion then shifts to the utility of a Bayesian-type formalism to delineate qualitative ""soft"" information and expert interpretation of reservoir description data. This topic is followed by papers concerning reservoir simulation, parameter assignment, and method of calculation of wetting phase relative permeability. This text also deals with the role of discontinuous vertical flow barriers in reservoir engineering. The last chapters focus on the effect of reservoir heterogeneity on oil reservoir. Petroleum engineers, scientists, and researchers will find this book of great value.

Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.

This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.

This book is a compilation of selected papers from the 3rd International Petroleum and Petrochemical Technology Conference (IPPTC 2019). The work focuses on petroleum & petrochemical technologies and practical challenges in the field. It creates a platform to bridge the knowledge gap between China and the world. The conference not only provides a platform to exchanges experience but also promotes the development of scientific research in petroleum & petrochemical technologies. The book will benefit a broad readership, including industry experts, researchers, educators, senior engineers and managers.