Incorporating a collection of recent results, Polya Urn Models deals with discrete probability through the modern and evolving urn theory and its numerous applications. It looks at how some classical problems of discrete probability have roots in urn models. The book covers the Polya-Eggenberger, Bernard Friedman's, the Bagchi-Pal, and the Ehrenfest urns. It also explains the processes of poissonization and depoissonization and presents applications to random trees, evolution, competitive exclusion, epidemiology, clinical trials, and random circuits. The text includes end-of-chapter exercises that range from easy to challenging, along with solutions in the back of the book.

Incorporating a collection of recent results, Pólya Urn Models deals with discrete probability through the modern and evolving urn theory and its numerous applications. The book first substantiates the realization of distributions with urn arguments and introduces several modern tools, including exchangeability and stochastic processes via urns. It reviews classical probability problems and presents dichromatic Pólya urns as a basic discrete structure growing in discrete time. The author then embeds the discrete Pólya urn scheme in Poisson processes to achieve an equivalent view in continuous time, provides heuristical arguments to connect the Pólya process to the discrete urn scheme, and explores extensions and generalizations. He also discusses how functional equations for moment generating functions can be obtained and solved. The final chapters cover applications of urns to computer science and bioscience. Examining how urns can help conceptualize discrete probability principles, this book provides information pertinent to the modeling of dynamically evolving systems where particles come and go according to governing rules.

The purpose of this book is to give a unified treatment of the limit theory of branching processes. Since the publication of the important book of T E. Harris (Theory of Branching Processes, Springer, 1963) the subject has developed and matured significantly. Many of the classical limit laws are now known in their sharpest form, and there are new proofs that give insight into the results. Our work deals primarily with this decade, and thus has very little overlap with that of Harris. Only enough material is repeated to make the treatment essentially self-contained. For example, certain foundational questions on the construction of processes, to which we have nothing new to add, are not developed. There is a natural classification of branching processes according to their criticality condition, their time parameter, the single or multi-type particle cases, the Markovian or non-Markovian character of the pro cess, etc. We have tried to avoid the rather uneconomical and un enlightening approach of treating these categories independently, and by a series of similar but increasingly complicated techniques. The basic Galton-Watson process is developed in great detail in Chapters I and II.

Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random variable, conditional probability, and conditional expectation. This is followed by discussions of stochastic processes, including Markov chains and Poison processes. The remaining chapters cover queuing, reliability theory, Brownian motion, and simulation. Many examples are worked out throughout the text, along with exercises to be solved by students. This book will be particularly useful to those interested in learning how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. Ideally, this text would be used in a one-year course in probability models, or a one-semester course in introductory probability theory or a course in elementary stochastic processes. New to this Edition: - 65% new chapter material including coverage of finite capacity queues, insurance risk models and Markov chains - Contains compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries containing several sections in the new exams - Updated data, and a list of commonly used notations and equations, a robust ancillary package, including a ISM, SSM, and test bank - Includes SPSS PASW Modeler and SAS JMP software packages which are widely used in the field Hallmark features: - Superior writing style - Excellent exercises and examples covering the wide breadth of coverage of probability topics - Real-world applications in engineering, science, business and economics

Now available in a fully revised and updated second edition, this well established textbook provides a straightforward introduction to the theory of probability. The presentation is entertaining without any sacrifice of rigour; important notions are covered with the clarity that the subject demands. Topics covered include conditional probability, independence, discrete and continuous random variables, basic combinatorics, generating functions and limit theorems, and an introduction to Markov chains. The text is accessible to undergraduate students and provides numerous worked examples and exercises to help build the important skills necessary for problem solving.

This book is a tribute to Professor Pedro Gil, who created the Department of Statistics, OR and TM at the University of Oviedo, and a former President of the Spanish Society of Statistics and OR (SEIO). In more than eighty original contributions, it illustrates the extent to which Mathematics can help manage uncertainty, a factor that is inherent to real life. Today it goes without saying that, in order to model experiments and systems and to analyze related outcomes and data, it is necessary to consider formal ideas and develop scientific approaches and techniques for dealing with uncertainty. Mathematics is crucial in this endeavor, as this book demonstrates. As Professor Pedro Gil highlighted twenty years ago, there are several well-known mathematical branches for this purpose, including Mathematics of chance (Probability and Statistics), Mathematics of communication (Information Theory), and Mathematics of imprecision (Fuzzy Sets Theory and others). These branches often intertwine, since different sources of uncertainty can coexist, and they are not exhaustive. While most of the papers presented here address the three aforementioned fields, some hail from other Mathematical disciplines such as Operations Research; others, in turn, put the spotlight on real-world studies and applications. The intended audience of this book is mainly statisticians, mathematicians and computer scientists, but practitioners in these areas will certainly also find the book a very interesting read.