This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors’ academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners.

Country risk explains the things that can go wrong when business is conducted across borders. It's not just multinational companies, with factories worldwide and complex operations, that need to understand sudden changes in business conditions. These can affect any small firm that may be looking to expand sales abroad or work with a foreign supplier. The 2008-09 global financial crisis and the Arab Spring showed us how quickly and dramatically business conditions in any country can worsen and spread. But a thorough understanding and careful management of country risk will help a company survive a crisis -- and even open up new opportunities. The Economist Guide to Country Risk explains: What risks foreign investors face, and how to measure and manage them in a systematic way. Why political and economic shocks are so hard to predict. Where economies are vulnerable and how existing risk models spot (or miss) signs of impending disaster. The typical bad habits of managers who ignore the warning signs. How and where the next crisis will emerge.

The ability to connect theoretical macroeconomics to the analysis of the economic and political performance of a given country is an essential skill for global investors. In Country Analysis: Understanding Economic and Political Performance, David M. Currie takes a unique analytical approach to the subject, clearly demonstrating the relationship between theory and application in investing practices. This valuable book shows how to interpret country performance and provides the practising investor with sufficient background on economic principles to be able to understand and interpret country summaries that appear in business periodicals and other media. It covers key topics such as the Washington Consensus and the three major categories of economic decisions - fiscal policy, monetary policy and trade policy. It includes an important chapter on the political aspect of government performance, to give the reader an understanding of economic decisions in their true context. Country Analysis explains the reasoning behind the criteria used in evaluating country risk and economic performance, without the need for a sophisticated understanding of economics or mathematics. Each chapter includes a series of text boxes that include real-life examples from business periodicals to reinforce what is discussed and enable readers to practice identifying and interpreting relevant information. Practitioners making investment decisions in global markets, as well as students in MBA and other courses, will find this immensely practical book a valuable aid to critical decision making.

This unique volume presents a trailblazing project of country risk analysis for international investments. It develops an innovative range of tools and techniques on the cutting edge of financial theories and practices for assessing and incorporating country/political risk in cross-border investment strategies. These tools and techniques address the nature of country risk as a broad concept that comprises an underlying combination of economics, finance, geopolitics, sociology, and history.

One of the few books on the subject, Country Risk Assessment combines the theoretical and practical tools for managing international country risk exposure. - Offers a comprehensive discussion of the specific mechanisms that apply to country risk assessment. - Discusses various techniques associated with global investment strategy. - Presents and analyses the various sources of country risk. - Provides an in depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers. - Gives techniques for forecasting country financial crises. - Includes practical examples and case studies. - Provides a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques on the cutting-edge Market Based Approaches such as KMV, CreditMetrics, CountryMetrics and CreditRisk+.

This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations.International banking standards are intended for the regulation of large, complex, risk-taking international banks with trillions of dollars in assets and operations across the globe. Yet they are being implemented in countries with nascent financial markets and small banks that have yet to ventureinto international markets. Why is this? This book develops a new framework to explain regulatory interdependence between countries in the core and the periphery of the global financial system. Drawing on in-depth analysis of eleven countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, it shows howfinancial globalisation generates strong reputational and competitive incentives for developing countries to converge on international standards. It explains how specific cross-border relations between regulators, politicians, and banks within developing countries, and international actors includinginvestors, peer regulators, and international financial institutions, generate regulatory interdependence. It explains why some configurations of domestic politics and forms of integration into global finance generate convergence with international standards, while other configurations lead todivergence. This book contributes to our understanding of the ways in which governments and firms in the core of global finance powerfully shape regulatory decisions in the periphery, and the ways that governments and firms from peripheral developing countries manoeuvre within the constraints andopportunities created by financial globalisation.

Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.