This revolution presents new and expanding market opportunities for smallholder livestock producers.

This compendium reproduces results from several, independent research projects undertaken at the Livestock Policy Analysis Programme (LPAP) of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This reproduction brings together separate pieces of research that relate to the same goals, namely, market expansion, food security, poverty alleviation and hunger prevention. It is to showcase the power of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, particularly Gibbs sampling, in providing direct answers to policy questions. It is hoped that the empirical research showcased in this compendium will spur other researchers to apply MCMC methods and the Bayesian paradigm to the heterogeneous research projects and policy questions that employed research encounters in less developed regions.

This study has analyzed the factors affecting common bean production and marketing decisions by agricultural households in Malawi. The empirical results from applying the triple hurdle model to the IHS3 data demonstrate that different sets of factors affect smallholder farmers’ production, market participation and the intensity of participation decisions with respect to common beans. The location of the farmer, ownership of a radio, receipt of production extension services and FISP benefits, distance to main road and distance to the nearest market affected the agricultural household’s decision to produce common beans.

The literature on commercial transformation of smallholders makes little distinction between market orientation (production decision based on market signals) and market participation (sale of output). This paper analyzes the determinants of market orientation and market participation in Ethiopia separately and examines if market orientation translates into market participation. Empirical results show that market orientation translates strongly into market participation. The key implication of this study is that policy, technological, organizational and institutional interventions aimed at promoting commercial transformation of subsistence agriculture should follow two-pronged approach: improving market orientation of smallholders at production level, and facilitating market entry and participation of households in output and input markets. Focusing on either may not be as effective in achieving the transformation.

While acknowledging the role of demographic and market forces as highlighted in the quantitative assessment, the paper concludes that different pathways from transhumant pastoralism have been shaped by policies and external interventions.