Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crises
Title | Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crises PDF eBook |
Author | Giancarlo Corsetti |
Publisher | |
Pages | 38 |
Release | 1996 |
Genre | Equilibrium (Economics) |
ISBN |
Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crisis : a Synthesis
Title | Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crisis : a Synthesis PDF eBook |
Author | Lilia Cavallari |
Publisher | |
Pages | 0 |
Release | 1996 |
Genre | |
ISBN |
Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models
Title | Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models PDF eBook |
Author | Mr.Robert P. Flood |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 12 |
Release | 1997-02-01 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1451843364 |
After the speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates in Europe and in Mexico, economists began to develop models of currency crises with multiple solutions. In these models, a currency crisis occurs when the economy suddenly jumps from one solution to another. This paper examines one of the new models, finding that raising the cost of devaluation may make a crisis more likely. Consequently, slow convergence to a monetary union, which increases the cost to the government of reneging on an exchange rate peg, may be counterproductive. This conclusion is exactly the opposite of that obtained from earlier models.
Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises
Title | Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises PDF eBook |
Author | Ms.Inci Ötker |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 38 |
Release | 1995-11-01 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1451853548 |
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises
Title | Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises PDF eBook |
Author | Mr.Robert P. Flood |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 64 |
Release | 1991-10-01 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1451852185 |
This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy discussed.
Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models
Title | Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models PDF eBook |
Author | Robert P. Flood |
Publisher | |
Pages | 11 |
Release | 2006 |
Genre | |
ISBN |
After the speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates in Europe and in Mexico, economists began to develop models of currency crises with multiple solutions. In these models, a currency crisis occurs when the economy suddenly jumps from one solution to another. This paper examines one of the new models, finding that raising the cost of devaluation may make a crisis more likely. Consequently, slow convergence to a monetary union, which increases the cost to the government of reneging on an exchange rate peg, may be counterproductive. This conclusion is exactly the opposite of that obtained from earlier models.
Speculative Attacks
Title | Speculative Attacks PDF eBook |
Author | Mr.Guillermo Calvo |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 7 |
Release | 1991-01-01 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1451926510 |
A brief survey of the literature on speculative attacks is provided. The nature and causes of balance-of-payments crises, the implications for the behavior of the current account and the real exchange rate are discussed. Also, potential areas for future research on balance-of-payments crises are suggested.