This paper assesses the nature of agricultural transformation taking place in different parts of Africa and analyzes policy drivers of the transformation using data from the CAADP Biennial Review (BR) on 46 indicators from 2014 to 2018. First, a typology of agriculture transformation in different groups of countries is developed by analyzing the initial values and trends in three indicators—share of agriculture in total employment, share of agriculture in gross domestic product, and agriculture labor productivity. The typology, in addition to a conceptual framework that is developed for measuring the relative effect of a policy on an outcome, provides the basis for analyzing the policy drivers of agriculture transformation. The 46 BR indicators are classified into policies (13 indicators), intermediate results (23 indicators), and outcomes (10 indicators), and then econometric methods are used to measure the association between the policy indicators and the intermediate results and outcomes, which include agriculture intensification (e.g., access to finance and extension, fertilizer use, and irrigation development), agriculture growth, agriculture trade, food security, nutrition, and poverty. Different fixed-effects regression methods and model specifications of the explanatory variables are used to assess sensitivity of the results to different assumptions of the data and the relationship between the policies and intermediate and outcome indicators. The trends in the indicators are different. For example, access to finance and extension have risen over time; fertilizer use, irrigation development, agriculture growth, and adult undernourishment have fallen over time; and child nutrition and poverty have remained stagnant over time. Different policy indicators are significantly associated with different indicators of agriculture intensification, agriculture growth, and outcomes. Also, there are differences in the results across the agriculture transformation groups. Major policy drivers of agriculture transformation in the different groups are identified. Implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.

This paper analyzes the determinants of the composition of government agriculture expenditure (GAE) in Africa and estimates the effect of the composition on agricultural productivity using cross-country annual data from 2014 to 2020 and structural equations modeling methods. It includes different specifications of the explanatory variables to assess the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions of the conceptual variables that are hypothesized to affect the composition and pathways of impact of government expenditure. The results show that there is a wide variation in GAE across African countries, and few have achieved the 10 percent CAADP agriculture expenditure target. Most African countries spend much smaller proportions of the national budget on agriculture than the sector’s share in the economy, and total agriculture expenditure seems to be allocated across subsectors according to their relative contribution to the sector’s output, with forestry and fisheries being slightly favored compared with crops and livestock, which dominate the sector. The allocation is also affected by several factors, such as past output and size of the subsector, official development assistance, education, irrigation, and state of agricultural transformation, although there are cross-subsector differences in their influence. There are also subsector differences in the estimated effect of GAE on land productivity: 0.06 to 0.08 for expenditure on the total sector, 0.02 for research, 0 to 0.09 for crops, 0 to 0.08 for livestock, and 0 to 0.07 for fisheries. The lower bound of zero means that the estimated effect is not statistically significant in some of the model specifications, such as whether cross-subsector expenditure effects are considered. We discuss implications of the results and suggestions for future research.

Research paper, agricultural development, role in economic development, structural change in the agricultural sector - theoretical aspects, decision making, agricultural production production factors, farm households, agricultural technology issues, agricultural policies for speeding up modernization, etc. Graph, references, tables.

This year marks 20 years of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which was broadened under the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. The 2023 Annual Trends and Outlook Report generates evidence on the implementation of the CAADP/Malabo agenda and thus contributes to the design of the post-Malabo phase of CAADP implementation. The report assesses the current state of Africa's food systems, explores strategic issues related to food systems transformation, and reflects on necessary methodologies and approaches to provide a better understanding of key challenges and necessary actions to accelerate transformation.

Meat, Milk & More: Policy Innovations to Shepherd Inclusive and Sustainable Livestock Systems in Africa highlights options for sustainably promoting growth in the livestock sector, drawing from what four African countries—Ethiopia, Mali, South Africa, and Uganda—have done successfully in terms of institutional and policy innovation as well as programmatic interventions. By adapting these lessons to countries’ specific contexts and scaling them up across the continent, African governments can meet their national and international commitments to agricultural growth and transformation.

The African agricultural and food market is expanding quickly as indicated by World Bank projections that show that the value of Africa’s agriculture and agribusiness industry is expected to more than triple to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030, compared to 2010 (World Bank, 2013). This provides an opportunity to not only boost trade in food and non-food agricultural commodities and services within the continent but also enhance food security in Africa. Regional integration is also gaining momentum as evidenced by progress in the creation of customs unions and the initial steps in setting up a common external tariff at the regional level in a number of regional economic communities (RECs) such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further reinforces the gains achieved in regional integration and opens new market opportunities for farmers and other economic operators.It has been shown that the export of higher value-added products made in Africa is greater in regional markets than in external markets outside Africa, which are typically dominated by raw material exports. However, more than a decade after the adoption of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) in Maputo in 2003 by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) in response to the stagnation of African agriculture, Africa continues to remain a marginal player, accounting for only 2.7 percent of world trade in goods and 5 percent of world agricultural trade (Bouët and Odjo, 2019).These figures are likely to trend downwards significantly in the near term due to the economic shock caused by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The continent currently depends to a significant degree on extra-African sources for imports of food and agricultural products. The share of intra-African agricultural trade has been consistently below 20 percent in recent decades (Bouët and Odjo, 2019; AGRA, 2019). Comparable figures for intraregional agricultural trade are higher for Asia and Europe (more than 60 percent).

The current report—Mechanized: Transforming Africa’s Agriculture Value Chains—summarizes the findings of a systematic analysis of what countries at the forefront of progress in mechanization have done right. It analyzes which policy decisions were taken and which interventions were implemented to substantially increase the uptake of mechanization. The report takes a broad perspective on mechanization, including technologies along the entire value chain and how they relate to agricultural development and job creation. The report shows what can be done to sustainably mechanize agriculture to increase production and enhance value addition across value chain segments. The set of policies and practices that are identified, if brought to scale, could have significant impact on agricultural transformation in Africa. The report provides a roadmap for African governments to take concerted action to deliver on the growth and transformation targets set out by the Malabo Declaration and the Sustainable Development Goals.