We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Displaced workers experience reduced earnings for many years. While this empirical phenomenon is well established, the theory of displacement-induced earnings loss is scattered. Policy discussion often interprets displacement-induced losses through the lens of specific human capital theory but there are other credible theories with different causal mechanisms and different interpretations. This paper reviews theories of costly job displacement and discusses their consistency with the available empirical evidence for the United States. We find that specific human capital theory and matching theory have considerable but far from conclusive empirical support. We suggest avenues for better discriminating among theories.

This book discusses unemployment and its relations to economic, political and social aspects. The first chapter studies the relationship of unemployment to the level of confidence that characterizes some macroeconomic relevant agents, such as consumers or investors. Chapter Two investigates the effects of productivity growth shocks on unemployment, both in the short run and in the medium - long run. Chapter Three reviews finite sample inference for unemployment-inflation tradeoff. Chapter Four focuses on understanding how the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and/or long-term labor market changes may have separately or jointly affected health among employed workers in 2010. Chapter Five evaluates the persistence of the unemployment rate in the following emerging European countries: Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Cyprus, Malta, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Chapter Six discusses the case of election results on the political aspects of unemployment. Chapter Seven studies the relationship between unemployment and the (individual) perceived levels of well-being, such as life satisfaction or happiness. Chapter Eight assesses the association between homelessness and survival in a population of unemployed individuals in one region of northern Poland. Chapter Nine studies the impact that educational level and vocational training programmes had on the labour market of semi-peripheral EU countries, using Greece as a case study. Chapter Ten estimates the effects of area unemployment rate on smoking and drinking in China.

This volume brings together a massive body of much-needed research information on a problem of crucial importance to labor economists, policy makers, and society in general: unemployment among the young. The thirteen studies detail the ambiguity and inadequacy of our present standard statistics as applied to youth employment, point out the error in many commonly accepted views, and show that many critically important aspects of this problem are not adequately understood. These studies also supply a significant amount of raw data, furnish a platform for further research and theoretical work in labor economics, and direct attention to promising avenues for future programs.

Since the mid-1970s Spain has suffered from persistently high unemployment, as it has occurred in other parts of Europe. Although during the last few years the unemployment level has declined, there are still enormous disparities in the unemployment rate across groups, skills and regions. This thesis attempts to shed some light on the mechanisms of unemployment persistence and skill and regional mismatch in Spain. Chapter 1 provides a first introductory analysis of Spanish data. The chapter emphasises the importance of skill and regional mismatch, which may have contributed about fifty percent to the observed increase in total unemployment over the last twenty years. The chapter also studies the cyclical pattern in the Spanish unemployment, which is a very important aspect in view of its magnitude. The following three chapters are devoted to the evaluation of different mechanisms that may have been at work. In all three chapters, the analysis relies on the specification, calibration and simulation of dynamic general equilibrium models with matching on the labour market. Chapter 2 focuses on cyclical fluctuations, with particular emphasis on the role of reallocation shocks. Chapter 3 focuses on « skill mismatch »; more precisely the chapter investigates to what extent unemployment rate disparities across skill groups can be explained in terms of a « ladder effect ». Chapter 4 focuses on regional disparities. A model is built to investigate the possible determinants of regional disparities and the role of labour mobility.