Raising long-term growth and resilience and improving living standards and inclusion are the top economic policy priorities for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The region responded strongly to the COVID shock, which unavoidably caused a contraction in output and an increase in poverty and inequality. While the region is at the crossroads between the West and the East as it is facing heightened uncertainty due to Russia's war in Ukraine and the rising risk of global fragmentation. Climate change is an additional challenge that could have a significant negative impact on CCA countries in the long term. These challenges, however, also offer an opportunity for the region to develop a new growth model that could strengthen long-term resilience, accelerate income convergence with more advanced country peers, and improve human development and social outcomes. The paper argues that a more market-based allocation of limited resources is needed to channel capital and labor to their most productive use. The private sector needs to become a key driver of economic activity while the state provides a competitive and market-friendly business environment, delivers essential public goods and services, addresses externalities and market failures, and mitigates systemic risks. The state also retains a critical role in mobilizing public support and resources for climate policies and protecting the vulnerable. Well-designed social safety nets play a key role in reducing poverty and inequality and are essential to the new economic growth model to support human capital development and alleviate the impact of structural reforms on the most vulnerable.

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Growth is estimated to have reached 4.8 percent in 2023 and is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation declined to 9.8 percent in 2023, still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s target of 5 percent. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The state’s footprint in the economy remains large and structural reform implementation has been slow in recent years. Despite strong buffers, the economy needs to be better prepared for future shocks in both the short term (e.g., from war spillovers, inflation, and global economic and financial conditions) and the medium term (e.g., from geo-economic fragmentation, climate events, and global decarbonization).

Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Leveraging the remarkable progress that has been achieved in the last seven years, the authorities remain steadfast in their commitment to continue their policy and reform agenda—as shown by the recent energy price reform—and to address the remaining challenges of reducing the role of the state, accelerating productivity growth, bringing down inflation, and stepping up some key structural reforms that have proceeded at a slower pace than desired.

Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues

Growth is moderating following a strong post-pandemic rebound, and inflation is easing. The near-term challenge is to resume fiscal consolidation following a temporary easing, and to ensure that inflation—which has recently returned to the target band—does not reignite amid external risks and domestic pressures. In the medium to long term, Azerbaijan’s biggest challenge is to reduce dependence on the hydrocarbon sector and advance private sector-led economic diversification.

Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues