The book gives an account of the mathematical-statistical theory of the main classes of parametric statistical models, i.e. transformatioon models and exponential models, and of likelihood based inference. The emphasis is on recent developments - various new results are presented - and the mathematical techniques employed include parts of the theory of group actions and invariant measures, differential geometry, and asymptotic analysis. A knowledge of these techniques is not presupposed but will be helpful, as the exposition is partly quite succinct. A basic knowledge of classic parametric statistical inference is however assumed. Exactness results and high-order asymptotic results for important likelihood quantities, including maximum likelihood estimators, score vectors, (signed) likelihood ratios and (modified) profile likelihoods, are discussed. Concepts of ancillarity and sufficiency enter prominently.

This book is a slightly revised and expanded version of a set I I I of notes used for a lecture series given at the Ecole dlEte de I Probabilites at st. Flour in August 1986. In view of the statistical nature of the material discussed herein it was agreed to publish the material as a separate volume in the statistics series rather than, as is the tradition, in a joint volume in the Lecture Notes in Mathematics Series. It is a genuine pleasure to have this opportunity to thank I I I the organizers of Les Ecoles dlEte, and in particular Professor P. -L. Hennequin, for the excellent arrangements of these Summer Schools which form a very significant forum for the exchange of scientific ideas relating to probability. The efficient, careful and patient preparation of the typescript by Oddbj~rg Wethelund is also gratefully acknowledged. Aarhus, June 1988 O. E. Barndorff-Nielsen Parametric statistical Models and Likelihood O. E. Barndorff-Nielsen o. Introduction 0. 1. Outline of contents 1 0. 2. A few preliminaries 2 1. Likelihood and auxiliary statistics 1. 1. Likelihood 4 1. 2. Moments and cumulants of log likelihood derivatives 10 1. 3. Parametrization invariance 13 1. 4. Marginal and conditional likelihood 15 * 1. 5. Combinants, auxiliaries, and the p -model 19 1. 6. Orthogonal parameters 27 1. 7. Pseudo likelihood, profile likelihood and modified 30 profile likelihood 1. 8. Ancillarity and conditionality 33 41 1. 9. Partial sufficiency and partial ancillarity 1. 10.

Two unifying components of statistics are the likelihood function and the exponential family. These are brought together for the first time as the central themes in this book on statistical inference, written for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in mathematical statistics.

This book demonstrates that nonparametric statistics can be taught from a parametric point of view. As a result, one can exploit various parametric tools such as the use of the likelihood function, penalized likelihood and score functions to not only derive well-known tests but to also go beyond and make use of Bayesian methods to analyze ranking data. The book bridges the gap between parametric and nonparametric statistics and presents the best practices of the former while enjoying the robustness properties of the latter. This book can be used in a graduate course in nonparametrics, with parts being accessible to senior undergraduates. In addition, the book will be of wide interest to statisticians and researchers in applied fields.

Presents a unified approach to parametric estimation, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and statistical modeling, which are uniquely based on the likelihood function This book addresses mathematical statistics for upper-undergraduates and first year graduate students, tying chapters on estimation, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and statistical models together to present a unifying focus on the likelihood function. It also emphasizes the important ideas in statistical modeling, such as sufficiency, exponential family distributions, and large sample properties. Mathematical Statistics: An Introduction to Likelihood Based Inference makes advanced topics accessible and understandable and covers many topics in more depth than typical mathematical statistics textbooks. It includes numerous examples, case studies, a large number of exercises ranging from drill and skill to extremely difficult problems, and many of the important theorems of mathematical statistics along with their proofs. In addition to the connected chapters mentioned above, Mathematical Statistics covers likelihood-based estimation, with emphasis on multidimensional parameter spaces and range dependent support. It also includes a chapter on confidence intervals, which contains examples of exact confidence intervals along with the standard large sample confidence intervals based on the MLE's and bootstrap confidence intervals. There’s also a chapter on parametric statistical models featuring sections on non-iid observations, linear regression, logistic regression, Poisson regression, and linear models. Prepares students with the tools needed to be successful in their future work in statistics data science Includes practical case studies including real-life data collected from Yellowstone National Park, the Donner party, and the Titanic voyage Emphasizes the important ideas to statistical modeling, such as sufficiency, exponential family distributions, and large sample properties Includes sections on Bayesian estimation and credible intervals Features examples, problems, and solutions Mathematical Statistics: An Introduction to Likelihood Based Inference is an ideal textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate courses in probability, mathematical statistics, and/or statistical inference.

Recently there has been a keen interest in the statistical analysis of change point detec tion and estimation. Mainly, it is because change point problems can be encountered in many disciplines such as economics, finance, medicine, psychology, geology, litera ture, etc. , and even in our daily lives. From the statistical point of view, a change point is a place or time point such that the observations follow one distribution up to that point and follow another distribution after that point. Multiple change points problem can also be defined similarly. So the change point(s) problem is two fold: one is to de cide if there is any change (often viewed as a hypothesis testing problem), another is to locate the change point when there is a change present (often viewed as an estimation problem). The earliest change point study can be traced back to the 1950s. During the fol lowing period of some forty years, numerous articles have been published in various journals and proceedings. Many of them cover the topic of single change point in the means of a sequence of independently normally distributed random variables. Another popularly covered topic is a change point in regression models such as linear regres sion and autoregression. The methods used are mainly likelihood ratio, nonparametric, and Bayesian. Few authors also considered the change point problem in other model settings such as the gamma and exponential.

Provides a foundation in classical parametric methods of regression and classification essential for pursuing advanced topics in predictive analytics and statistical learning This book covers a broad range of topics in parametric regression and classification including multiple regression, logistic regression (binary and multinomial), discriminant analysis, Bayesian classification, generalized linear models and Cox regression for survival data. The book also gives brief introductions to some modern computer-intensive methods such as classification and regression trees (CART), neural networks and support vector machines. The book is organized so that it can be used by both advanced undergraduate or masters students with applied interests and by doctoral students who also want to learn the underlying theory. This is done by devoting the main body of the text of each chapter with basic statistical methodology illustrated by real data examples. Derivations, proofs and extensions are relegated to the Technical Notes section of each chapter, Exercises are also divided into theoretical and applied. Answers to selected exercises are provided. A solution manual is available to instructors who adopt the text. Data sets of moderate to large sizes are used in examples and exercises. They come from a variety of disciplines including business (finance, marketing and sales), economics, education, engineering and sciences (biological, health, physical and social). All data sets are available at the book’s web site. Open source software R is used for all data analyses. R codes and outputs are provided for most examples. R codes are also available at the book’s web site. Predictive Analytics: Parametric Models for Regression and Classification Using R is ideal for a one-semester upper-level undergraduate and/or beginning level graduate course in regression for students in business, economics, finance, marketing, engineering, and computer science. It is also an excellent resource for practitioners in these fields.