After over two decades of unprecedented economic expansion, Panama’s economy contracted sharply in 2020 amidst challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. As conditions rapidly deteriorated, Panama requested financial support under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for 100 percent of quota equivalent to US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.4 billion) to address immediate balance of payments needs, which the IMF Executive Board approved on April 15, 2020. Subsequently, uncertainties magnified, and Panama requested a two-year arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.9 billion), as insurance against extreme external shocks, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 19, 2021.

The pandemic interrupted ten years of growth, but El Salvador is rebounding quickly. Robust external demand, resilient remittances, and a sound management of the pandemic—with the help of a disbursement under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) (SDR287.2 million or US$389 million) approved in April 2020—are supporting a strong recovery. Persistent fiscal deficits and high debt service are leading to large and increasing gross fiscal financing needs.

The pandemic interrupted a prolonged growth spell that made the Dominican Republic one of the most dynamic economies in the region amid strong growth, macroeconomic stability and improved social outcomes. This built resilience to the shock—including by maintaining access to markets—and allowed a decisive policy response to address the health emergency, support growth, and protect the vulnerable.

Panama was hit hard by the covid-19 pandemic, but the recovery has been strong. GDP expanded by 15.3 percent in 2021 and a projected 9 percent in 2022. Inflation is low compared with other countries, in part the result of temporary subsidies on fuel and food. The fiscal deficit declined from 101⁄2 percent of GDP in 2020 to 4 percent of GDP in 2022 and central government gross debt is estimated at 60 percent of GDP at end-2022. Banks are, on average, well capitalized and liquid. As insurance against external shocks, the IMF Executive Board approved a two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.884 billion), on January 19, 2021.

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Panama’s expected continued growth—among the strongest in Latin America—against a backdrop of low inflation, a stable financial system, and a declining current account deficit. GDP grew by 5.8 percent in 2015, and growth is projected to remain at about 6 percent in 2016 and over the medium term. The economy will be supported by the expected opening of the expanded canal and lower fuel prices. The overall fiscal deficit is expected to consolidate to 1.2 percent of GDP over the medium term. Public debt is projected as sustainable.

Macroeconomic vulnerabilities have declined since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The economy is expected to rebound swiftly in 2021 as activities return to normality and the population is increasingly vaccinated. External imbalances are contained. The fiscal position is gradually consolidated as the authorities remain committed to the revised fiscal rule, which will ensure a declining path for the NFPS debt. The outlook remains subject to elevated risks, including uncertainties arising from possible more contagious variants of the COVID-19 virus. Domestic risks include setbacks in implementing the FATF action plan to exit the grey list, delays in fiscal consolidation, and a prolonged pandemic that could exacerbate socioeconomic hardship and derail economic policies and the recovery.

Trinidad and Tobago faced unprecedented challenges in 2020–21. The combined effects of COVID-19 and energy production and price shocks pushed the economy further into recession. A decisive policy response helped contain the virus spread and protect lives and livelihoods. The fiscal position worsened due to significant tax revenues shortfalls, pushing public debt up. The vaccination pace accelerated recently, but vaccine hesitancy remains high, amid a potential new wave of infections.