On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks
Title | On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks PDF eBook |
Author | Deren Unalmis |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 41 |
Release | 2012-11-08 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1475598432 |
Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
Title | The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation PDF eBook |
Author | Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 34 |
Release | 2021-11-12 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1616356154 |
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
International Dimensions of Monetary Policy
Title | International Dimensions of Monetary Policy PDF eBook |
Author | Jordi Galí |
Publisher | University of Chicago Press |
Pages | 663 |
Release | 2010-03-15 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 0226278875 |
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations
Title | On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations PDF eBook |
Author | Deren Unalmis |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 30 |
Release | 2009-12-01 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1451874308 |
Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks
Title | On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks PDF eBook |
Author | Deren Unalmis |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 41 |
Release | 2012-11-08 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1475586361 |
Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information
Title | Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information PDF eBook |
Author | Tao Wu |
Publisher | DIANE Publishing |
Pages | 41 |
Release | 2010-10 |
Genre | Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | 1437935583 |
The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.
Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices
Title | Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices PDF eBook |
Author | Mr.Aasim M. Husain |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 41 |
Release | 2015-07-14 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 151357227X |
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.