This book provides a comprehensive guide to market timing using moving averages. Part I explores the foundations of market timing rules, presenting a methodology for examining how the value of a trading indicator is computed. Using this methodology the author then applies the computation of trading indicators to a variety of market timing rules to analyse the commonalities and differences between the rules. Part II goes on to present a comprehensive analysis of the empirical performance of trading rules based on moving averages.

There is a prevailing view among researchers and practitioners that abnormal risk-adjusted returns are an anomaly of financial market inefficiency. This outlook is misleading, since such returns only shed light on the imperfect models commonly used to measure and benchmark investment performance. In particular, using static asset pricing models to judge the performance of a dynamic investment strategy leads to flawed inferences when predicting market indicators. Market Timing and Moving Averages investigates the performance of moving average price indicators as a tactical asset allocation strategy. Glabadanidis provides a rationale for analyzing and testing the market timing and predictive power of any indicator based on past average prices and trading volume. He argues that certain trading strategies are best implemented as a dynamic asset allocation without selling short, in turn achieving the effect of an imperfect at-the-money protective put option. This work contains an empirical analysis of the performance of various versions of trading strategies based on simple moving averages.

This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

“In this compelling book, Gerald Appel distills a lifetime of learning about what works on Wall Street into key principles of investment success. Whether you are new to the world of finance or you’re a veteran portfolio manager, you will gain from Gerald’s innovative research and his discerning insights into price behavior.” Nelson Freeburg, Editor and Publisher, Formula Research “This new book by Gerald Appel follows the rich legacy he has established over the years; it is a treasure chest of valuable advice which bestows on the reader the benefit of his decades of investment experience. It receives my highest recommendation.” Edward D. Dobson, President, Traders Press You can clearly outperform the stock market indexes and a “buy and hold” approach to investing. Leading investment expert Gerald Appel shows you how. Appel introduces The Weekly Stock Market Power Gauge that employs three specific market timing indicators that have had excellent performance histories going back as far as 1970. These timing indicators enable you to gauge the market strength and can be maintained by almost any investor in only a few minutes per week. Using Appel’s techniques, you’ll learn how to forecast the likely direction of the market, and its relative strength compared with fixed income and other investments. The book provides exact buy-sell indicators, with specific signal generators and track records for readers to follow. In addition, Appel’s techniques help you identify the specific mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and market sectors that are likely to be most profitable. Simply put, Appel shows you what information you need to forecast the direction of stock prices with high probabilities of success, where to readily locate that information, how to interpret that information, and when to enter and when to exit the stock market. Gauge the market’s true inner pulse... ...and identify major market shifts in time to leverage them Optimize your portfolio’s blend of risk and reward Use proven timing models to systematically reduce risk and maximize profit opportunities Master powerful momentum investing techniques Win by going with the flow, not against it Select the right equities, ETFs, and mutual funds Objectively choose the best investments in any market environment

A simple guide to a smarter strategy for the individual investor A Wealth of Common Sense sheds a refreshing light on investing, and shows you how a simplicity-based framework can lead to better investment decisions. The financial market is a complex system, but that doesn't mean it requires a complex strategy; in fact, this false premise is the driving force behind many investors' market "mistakes." Information is important, but understanding and perspective are the keys to better decision-making. This book describes the proper way to view the markets and your portfolio, and show you the simple strategies that make investing more profitable, less confusing, and less time-consuming. Without the burden of short-term performance benchmarks, individual investors have the advantage of focusing on the long view, and the freedom to construct the kind of portfolio that will serve their investment goals best. This book proves how complex strategies essentially waste these advantages, and provides an alternative game plan for those ready to simplify. Complexity is often used as a mechanism for talking investors into unnecessary purchases, when all most need is a deeper understanding of conventional options. This book explains which issues you actually should pay attention to, and which ones are simply used for an illusion of intelligence and control. Keep up with—or beat—professional money managers Exploit stock market volatility to your utmost advantage Learn where advisors and consultants fit into smart strategy Build a portfolio that makes sense for your particular situation You don't have to outsmart the market if you can simply outperform it. Cut through the confusion and noise and focus on what actually matters. A Wealth of Common Sense clears the air, and gives you the insight you need to become a smarter, more successful investor.