The rapid growth of offshoring has sparked a contentious debate over its impact on the U.S. manufacturing sector, which has recorded steep employment declines yet strong output growth -- a fact reconciled by the notable gains in manufacturing productivity. We maintain, however, that the dramatic acceleration of imports from developing countries has imparted a significant bias to the official statistics. In particular, the price declines associated with the shift to low-cost foreign suppliers are generally not captured in input cost and import price indexes. Although cost savings are a primary driver of the shift in sourcing to foreign suppliers, the price declines associated with offshoring are not systematically observed; this is the essence of the measurement problem. To gauge the magnitude of these discounts, we draw on a variety of evidence from import price microdata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, industry case studies, and the business press. To assess the implications of offshoring bias for manufacturing productivity and value added, we implement the bias correction developed by Diewert and Nakamura (2009) to the input price index in a growth accounting framework, using a variety of assumptions about the magnitude of the discounts from offshoring. We find that from 1997 to 2007 average annual multifactor productivity growth in manufacturing was overstated by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point and real value added growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage point. Furthermore, although the bias from offshoring represents a relatively small share of real value added growth in the computer and electronic products industry, it may have accounted for a fifth to a half of the growth in real value added in the rest of manufacturing.

The rapid growth of offshoring has sparked a contentious debate over its impact on the U.S. manufacturing sector, which has recorded steep employment declines yet strong output growth -- a fact reconciled by the notable gains in manufacturing productivity. We maintain, however, that the dramatic acceleration of imports from developing countries has imparted a significant bias to the official statistics. In particular, the price declines associated with the shift to low-cost foreign suppliers generally are not captured in input cost and import price indexes. To assess the implications of offshoring bias for manufacturing productivity and value added, we implement the bias correction developed by Diewert and Nakamura (2009) to the input price index in a growth accounting framework, using a variety of assumptions about the magnitude of the discounts from offshoring. We find that from 1997 to 2007 average annual multifactor productivity growth in manufacturing was overstated by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point and real value added growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage point. Furthermore, although the bias from offshoring represents a relatively small share of real value added growth in the computer and electronic products industry, it may have accounted for a fifth to a half of the growth in real value added in the rest of manufacturing.

This paper estimates the effects of offshoring on productivity in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2000, using instrumental variables estimation to address the potential endogeneity of offshoring. It finds that service offshoring has a significant positive effect on productivity in the US, accounting for around 11 percent of productivity growth during this period. Offshoring material inputs also has a positive effect on productivity, but the magnitude is smaller accounting for approximately 5 percent of productivity growth. There is a small negative effect of less than half a percent on employment when industries are finely disaggregated (450 manufacturing industries). However, this affect disappears at more aggregate industry level of 96 industries indicating that there is sufficient growth in demand in other industries within these broadly defined classifications to offset any negative effects.

(Cont.) This thesis explores the U.S. manufacturing sector by looking at employment and trade data at a macro-level. The terms offshoring and outsourcing will be defined and the main international trade theories discussed. The thesis develops a model to show that offshoring was only a part of the reason for the shrinkage in manufacturing employment between 1997 and 2003; the others being a drop in demand and gains in productivity. After introducing several case studies of companies in the apparel sector and the semi-conductor industry, a framework for understanding the offshoring decision process is developed. This framework defines the conditions needed to make manufacturing in U.S. competitive with production abroad. Finally through a detailed study of the expansion of the Chinese economy and the Wal-Mart phenomenon, the thesis presents the next challenges of the U.S. manufacturing sector: the birth of new competitors for high value added products and the rising constraints on price due to the pressure of retailers on manufacturers.

Offshoring, also known as offshore outsourcing, is the term now being used to describe a practice among companies located in the United States of contracting with businesses beyond U.S. borders to perform services that would otherwise have been provided by in-house employees in white-collar occupations. The term is equally applicable to U.S. firms offshoring the jobs of blue-collar workers on textile and auto assembly lines, for example, which has been taking place for decades. The extension of offshoring from U.S. manufacturers to service providers has heightened public policy concerns about the extent of job loss and foregone employment opportunities among U.S. workers. This concern is especially pertinent to policymakers because of a national unemployment rate persistently exceeding 9 per cent despite the end of the latest recession. This book discusses the impacts of offshoring on jobs and small U.S. manufacturers.