Many lower density regions in the OECD face shrinkage, with projections suggesting that half of Europe will need to manage decline in remote regions by 2050. Half of Estonia’s counties experienced population decline greater than 25% since 1991.

Many lower density regions in the OECD face shrinkage, with projections suggesting that half of Europe will need to manage decline in remote regions by 2050. Half of Estonia's counties experienced population decline greater than 25% since 1991. Shrinkage leads to problems including lower municipal revenues, ageing, and greater per capita costs of service and infrastructure provision. Estonia is also the most carbon-intensive economy in the OECD, and heavily utilises its forests and land. To tackle these challenges, the report provides analyses in a number of policy areas to respond to demographic change in a smart and sustainable manner. A policy framework that emphasises a spatially oriented, coordinated approach for responding to shrinkage is developed. The report provides policy recommendations to make land use more efficient and spatial planning more coherent. It suggests ways to improve the transfer system and strengthen the municipal revenue base while encouraging inter-municipal cooperation. It also discusses education, the municipalities' largest spending responsibility, providing recommendations that adapt the school network to shrinkage while ensuring access to high-quality education for all students.

Across the world, people’s daily activities centre around clusters of population and economic activity. Settlements – cities, towns and villages – provide jobs and access to services for their own residents and others nearby. The quality of access to those services is key to promoting vibrant, inclusive and happier communities

Current population trends and the COVID-19 pandemic reinforce the need for efficient public service provision while guaranteeing good access to all. Population decline and ageing in rural regions affect the provision of services through lower economies of scale and scope, professional shortages and longer distances.

This publication is part of the OECD workstream on Preparing Regions for Demographic Change. It elaborates a case study for the Portuguese region of Alentejo and focuses on improving the delivery of educational services taking into account the multi-level governance context.