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''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""

Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

In recent years, the integration of goods, capital and financial markets has progressed on a global scale. The 66th annual meeting of the Association of German Economics Research Institutes (ARGE) focused on the question of national macroeconomic policies in an environment of increasingly interdependent business cycles.In the first paper of the volume, Koll gives a general introduction to the history of business cycles co-movement. Koll also highlights the responsibility of national governments as global players.The first section deals with the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Flaig, Sturm and Woitek conclude that, while the oil shocks of the 70s induced strong co-movements in business cycles, German unification led to a divergence of national cycles. The paper by Fichtner concentrates not only on business cycle synchronization over time but introduces an analysis on the transmission mechanisms at work. Fichtner finds that common shocks and technology spillovers account for most of the co-movement in output.The second section explains some of the individual transmission mechanisms in greater detail. Horn examines how business confidence carries over from one country to another and finds evidence that positive expectations in the US strengthen German confidence and that this relationship has become stronger over time. Schröder quantifies the role of the transmission of stock market investors' confidence in the relationship between US and German GDP. He distinguishes between the pure investor expectation effect and the direct influence of stock markets on real GDP and finds a direct causal impact.The third section concentrates on economic policy and its implications. Kuhn analyzes the transmission of monetary policy shocks and finds the transmission mechanism via interest rate co-movements to be more important than that via trade and the exchange rate mechanism. Middendorf and Radmacher-Nottelmann explore the importance of multinationals in the transmission of economic business cycles. Macro evidence suggests a synchronization of investment behavior. Micro evidence, however, reveals only a weak impact of multinationals on business cycle synchronization.This AEQ supplement should be essential reading for anyone, whether academic or practitioner, with an interest in future macroeconomic policy options in an increasingly integrated economic environment. InhaltsverzeichnisInhalt: W. Koll, Economic Policy in the Light of New Forms of International Business-Cycle Convergence - G. Flaig / J.-E. Sturm / U. Woitek, International Synchronization of National Business Cycles? - M. J. M. Neumann, Comment - F. Fichtner, Germany and the European Business Cycle. An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model - B. Lucke, Comment - G. A. Horn, US Outlook and German Confidence. Does the Confidence Channel Work? - C. Dreger, Comment - M. Schröder, Interactions between U.S. and German GDP: The Role of Stock Markets - H. Entorf, Comment - A. Kuhn, The International Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for Selected OECD Countries - V. Clausen, Comment - T. Middendorf / N. A. Radmacher-Nottelmann, Business Cycle Transmission and MNE Activity. Macroeconomic Patterns and Microeconomic Evidence - A. Jungmittag, Comment

For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).

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