This report consists of a survey of the state of the art in uncertainty-based design together with recommendations for a Base research activity in this area for the NASA Langley Research Center. This report identifies the needs and opportunities for computational and experimental methods that provide accurate, efficient solutions to nondeterministic multidisciplinary aerospace vehicle design problems. Barriers to the adoption of uncertainty-based design methods are identified. and the benefits of the use of such methods are explained. Particular research needs are listed.Zang, Thomas A. and Hemsch, Michael J. and Hilburger, Mark W. and Kenny, Sean P and Luckring, James M. and Maghami, Peiman and Padula, Sharon L. and Stroud, W. JeffersonLangley Research CenterAEROSPACE VEHICLES; DESIGN ANALYSIS; UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS; SURVEYS

Spotlighting the field of Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO), this book illustrates and implements state-of-the-art methodologies within the complex process of aerospace system design under uncertainties. The book provides approaches to integrating a multitude of components and constraints with the ultimate goal of reducing design cycles. Insights on a vast assortment of problems are provided, including discipline modeling, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, reliability analysis, and global multidisciplinary optimization. The extensive range of topics covered include areas of current open research. This Work is destined to become a fundamental reference for aerospace systems engineers, researchers, as well as for practitioners and engineers working in areas of optimization and uncertainty. Part I is largely comprised of fundamentals. Part II presents methodologies for single discipline problems with a review of existing uncertainty propagation, reliability analysis, and optimization techniques. Part III is dedicated to the uncertainty-based MDO and related issues. Part IV deals with three MDO related issues: the multifidelity, the multi-objective optimization and the mixed continuous/discrete optimization and Part V is devoted to test cases for aerospace vehicle design.

In an expanding world with limited resources, optimization and uncertainty quantification have become a necessity when handling complex systems and processes. This book provides the foundational material necessary for those who wish to embark on advanced research at the limits of computability, collecting together lecture material from leading experts across the topics of optimization, uncertainty quantification and aerospace engineering. The aerospace sector in particular has stringent performance requirements on highly complex systems, for which solutions are expected to be optimal and reliable at the same time. The text covers a wide range of techniques and methods, from polynomial chaos expansions for uncertainty quantification to Bayesian and Imprecise Probability theories, and from Markov chains to surrogate models based on Gaussian processes. The book will serve as a valuable tool for practitioners, researchers and PhD students.

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization supported by Knowledge Based Engineering supports engineers confronting this daunting and new design paradigm. It describes methodology for conducting a system design in a systematic and rigorous manner that supports human creativity to optimize the design objective(s) subject to constraints and uncertainties. The material presented builds on decades of experience in Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) methods, progress in concurrent computing, and Knowledge Based Engineering (KBE) tools. Key features: Comprehensively covers MDO and is the only book to directly link this with KBE methods Provides a pathway through basic optimization methods to MDO methods Directly links design optimization methods to the massively concurrent computing technology Emphasizes real world engineering design practice in the application of optimization methods Multidisciplinary Design Optimization supported by Knowledge Based Engineering is a one-stop-shop guide to the state-of-the-art tools in the MDO and KBE disciplines for systems design engineers and managers. Graduate or post-graduate students can use it to support their design courses, and researchers or developers of computer-aided design methods will find it useful as a wide-ranging reference.

This proceedings book covers a wide range of topics related to uncertainty analysis and its application in various fields of engineering and science. It explores uncertainties in numerical simulations for soil liquefaction potential, the toughness properties of construction materials, experimental tests on cyclic liquefaction potential, and the estimation of geotechnical engineering properties for aerogenerator foundation design. Additionally, the book delves into uncertainties in concrete compressive strength, bio-inspired shape optimization using isogeometric analysis, stochastic damping in rotordynamics, and the hygro-thermal properties of raw earth building materials. It also addresses dynamic analysis with uncertainties in structural parameters, reliability-based design optimization of steel frames, and calibration methods for models with dependent parameters. The book further explores mechanical property characterization in 3D printing, stochastic analysis in computational simulations, probability distribution in branching processes, data assimilation in ocean circulation modeling, uncertainty quantification in climate prediction, and applications of uncertainty quantification in decision problems and disaster management. This comprehensive collection provides insights into the challenges and solutions related to uncertainty in various scientific and engineering contexts.