The Trump Administration has made NAFTA renegotiation and modernization a prominent initial priority of its trade policy. The fourth of a series of seven meetings between the trade partners took place as this report was finalized, with no result in sight. The final three rounds of negotiation, intended to salvage the free trade accord by satisfying the new US administration's concerns, are due to take place through early 2018. Either "success" or "failure" of the talks will greatly reshape the accord, with significant economic impact in all three nations and beyond.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ranks at the top of anyone’s list of the most controversial trade deals of all time. Reviled by critics as unfair and as a job destroyer, praised by its defenders as having a documented record of success in spurring economic growth, NAFTA reduced tariff barriers to zero for the United States, Mexico, and Canada and led to a tripling of trade among these three countries over the last 23 years. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) has abundantly detailed the many gains and acknowledged costs of NAFTA in numerous publications. Now that President Donald Trump has launched a renegotiation of NAFTA—having at least for the moment abandoned his 2016 campaign pledge to cancel the pact outright—the fundamental question is: Can such a renegotiation produce a positive result? A broad range of experts who have contributed to this PIIE Briefing say “yes.” The new negotiations can succeed only if they focus on how the agreement can be updated and upgraded, however. NAFTA can be modernized only if President Trump’s zero-sum “America First” agenda is replaced by one that seeks to benefit all three countries and improve their competitiveness in an increasingly competitive global economy. Prioritizing American interests is of course essential in any US trade negotiation. But an obsessive concern about bilateral trade balances and narrow special interests in the United States, as opposed to broader national and regional interests, would not only deadlock the negotiations but also likely lead to inferior outcomes for all three countries, or even a breakdown in the talks and an abrogation of the agreement. And walking away from NAFTA altogether would be disastrous for consumers, producers, and retailers in the United States. As argued in several chapters of this Briefing, abandoning NAFTA would degrade regional competitiveness and terminate jobs across North America, undoing the integration achieved since the agreement’s inception.

The 116th Congress faces policy issues related to the Trump Administration's renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the proposed United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). On May 18, 2017, the Trump Administration sent a 90-day notification to Congress of its intent to begin talks with Canada and Mexico to renegotiate and modernize NAFTA, as required by the 2015 Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). Talks officially began on August 16, 2017. Negotiations were concluded on September 30, 2018. The proposed USMCA was signed on November 30, 2018. The agreement must be approved by Congress and ratified by the governments of Mexico and Canada before it can enter into force. The first NAFTA negotiations were launched in 1992 under President George H.W. Bush and continued under President William J. Clinton, who signed the implementing legislation on December 8, 1991 (P.L. 103-182). NAFTA entered into force on January 1, 1994. It is particularly significant because it was the most comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) negotiated at the time, contained several groundbreaking provisions, and was the first of a new generation of U.S. FTAs later negotiated. Congress played a major role during its consideration and, after contentious and comprehensive debate, ultimately approved legislation to implement the agreement. NAFTA established trade liberalization commitments and set new rules and disciplines for future FTAs on issues important to the United States, including intellectual property rights protection, services trade, dispute settlement procedures, investment, labor, and environment. NAFTA's market-opening provisions gradually eliminated nearly all tariff and most nontariff barriers on merchandise trade. The proposed USMCA, comprising 34 chapters and 12 side letters, retains most of NAFTA's market opening measures and most of its chapters, while making notable changes to auto rules of origin, dispute settlement provisions, government procurement, investment, and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection. It also modernizes provisions in services, labor, and the environment. New trade issues, such as digital trade, state-owned enterprises, anticorruption, and currency misalignment, are also addressed. Key issues for Congress in regard to the proposed USMCA include the constitutional authority of Congress over international trade, its role in revising, approving, or withdrawing from the agreement, U.S. negotiating objectives and the extent to which the proposed agreement makes progress in meeting them as required under TPA. Congress may also consider the agreement's impact on U.S. industries, the U.S. economy, and broader U.S. trade relations with Canada and Mexico. The timing for congressional consideration of the proposed USMCA is unclear in part because of the TPA timeline and also because of issues of interest and concern voiced by Congress, including the level of enforceable labor provisions, auto rules of origin, and investor-state dispute settlement. Some policymakers have stated that the path forward to passage of the USMCA by Congress is uncertain partially because the three countries have yet to resolve disputes over U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are currently in a trade dispute over U.S. actions under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1962 to impose tariffs on such imports due to national security concerns. In response to the U.S. action, Mexico and Canada initiated World Trade Organization dispute settlement proceedings and retaliated against certain U.S. exports. The conclusion of the proposed USMCA did not resolve the Section 232 tariff dispute. The United States, Canada and Mexico are currently in a trade dispute over U.S. actions under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1962 to impose tariffs on such imports due to national security concerns.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entered into force on January 1, 1994. The agreement was signed by President George H. W. Bush on December 17, 1992, and approved by Congress on November 20, 1993. The NAFTA Implementation Act was signed into law by President William J. Clinton on December 8, 1993 (P.L. 103-182). The overall economic impact of NAFTA is difficult to measure since trade and investment trends are influenced by numerous other economic variables, such as economic growth, inflation, and currency fluctuations. The agreement likely accelerated and also locked in trade liberalization that was already taking place in Mexico, but many of these changes may have taken place without an agreement. Nevertheless, NAFTA is significant, because it was the most comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) negotiated at the time and contained several groundbreaking provisions. A legacy of the agreement is that it has served as a template or model for the new generation of FTAs that the United States later negotiated, and it also served as a template for certain provisions in multilateral trade negotiations as part of the Uruguay Round. The 115th Congress faces numerous issues related to NAFTA and international trade. President Donald J. Trump has proposed renegotiating NAFTA, or possibly withdrawing from it. Congress may wish to consider the ramifications of renegotiating or withdrawing from NAFTA and how it may affect the U.S. economy and foreign relations with Mexico and Canada. It may also wish to examine the congressional role in a possible renegotiation, as well as the negotiating positions of Canada and Mexico. Mexico has stated that, if NAFTA is reopened, it may seek to broaden negotiations to include security, counter-narcotics, and transmigration issues. Mexico has also indicated that it may choose to withdraw from the agreement if the negotiations are not favorable to the country. Congress may also wish to address issues related to the U.S. withdrawal from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement among the United States, Canada, Mexico, and 9 other countries. Some observers contend that the withdrawal from TPP could damage U.S. competitiveness and economic leadership in the region, while others see the withdrawal as a way to prevent lower cost imports and potential job losses. Key provisions in TPP may also be addressed in 'modernizing' or renegotiating NAFTA, a more than two decade-old FTA. NAFTA was controversial when first proposed, mostly because it was the first FTA involving two wealthy, developed countries and a developing country. The political debate surrounding the agreement was divisive with proponents arguing that the agreement would help generate thousands of jobs and reduce income disparity in the region, while opponents warned that the agreement would cause huge job losses in the United States as companies moved production to Mexico to lower costs. In reality, NAFTA did not cause the huge job losses feared by the critics or the large economic gains predicted by supporters. The net overall effect of NAFTA on the U.S. economy appears to have been relatively modest, primarily because trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for a small percentage of U.S. GDP. However, there were worker and firm adjustment costs as the three countries adjusted to more open trade and investment. The rising number of bilateral and regional trade agreements throughout the world and the rising presence of China in Latin America could have implications for U.S. trade policy with its NAFTA partners. Some proponents of open and rules-based trade contend that maintaining NAFTA or deepening economic relations with Canada and Mexico will help promote a common trade agenda with shared values and generate economic growth. Some opponents argue that the agreement has caused worker displacement.