This report shares the results of a joint analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on the agrifood system in Myanmar based on an assessment conducted from August to September 2021. The report analyses the effects of a range of natural and human-induced shocks on the agrifood system in Myanmar and shares the results of a field assessment in which 2 708 household interviews were conducted. The assessment covered 147 townships in nine states and regions: Mon, Chin, Kachin, Kayin, Kayah, Rakhine, Sagaing, Shan and Yangon; data were collected between August and September 2021, complemented by a survey of food traders and input retailers.

There is an urgent need to anticipate and mitigate the threat posed by COVID-19 to Myanmar’s agricultural sector and to rural households that depend on farming for income and for food and nutrition security. We evaluate options to address the threat and to support farmers to prepare their land and plant their crops on time in the short window before the start of the 2020 monsoon cropping season. Recognizing that no single intervention can address the full range of vulnerabilities faced by rural households, we recommend a combination: • Expansion of access to seasonal farm credit with extended loan repayment schedules; • Limited agricultural input subsidies targeting certified seed; and • Implementation of a cash transfer program to smallholder farmers. Despite the high cost of a cash transfer program, there are good reasons to expect that the benefits of such support to farm households will outweigh program costs in monetary terms – even more so if the economic benefits from the consequent lower incidence of malnutrition to which the program would contribute can be measured.

This report shares the results of a joint analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on the agri-food system in Myanmar based on an assessment conducted from August to October 2020. The analysis was part of a broader initiative to contribute to data collection and analysis linked to COVID-19, informing evidence-based programming in selected countries. Its objective was to assess the effects of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system, which includes livestock and fishing, food supplies, livelihoods and the food security of rural people at the national level. Information is collected from primary sources of the production process: producer households, traders or marketers, inputs suppliers, extension officers and key informants. The first round of data collection has been completed, with Rounds II and III taking place in 2021. This assessment covered 75 townships in eight states and regions: Mon, Chin, Kachin, Kayin, Rakhine, Sagaing, Shan and Yangon; data were collected between mid-August to mid-October 2020, complemented by a survey of input vendors. This report was made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of FAO and WFP, and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.

The recent sudden imposition of a stringent 21-day lockdown in India in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the food security of many vulnerable Indians. These impacts highlight the many challenges that this kind of anti-COVID intervention can pose in other settings where the labor force is mostly informally employed with poor job security and low wages, and where the agri-food systems is similarly informal with widespread use of open-air markets. Myanmar is such a setting. India’s chastening experience with food security during its lockdown suggests the following actions would be imperative for maintaining food security in Myanmar: • Allow the free movement of all goods. A stable and reliable agri-food system requires free movements of a wide range of food products (including micronutrient-rich fruits, vegetables and animal-sourced foods) as well as essential non-food goods. • Monitor food markets and agricultural value chains as closely as possible to address problems when they do arise. • Reduce risk of COVID-19 contagion by improving hygiene in Myanmar’s food markets. • Issue clear directives to police, military, and local authorities not to impede the movement of goods. The Government of Myanmar should learn from the mistakes made in India and other developing countries. We must recognize that basic food and nutrition security must be maintained at all times through this complex health and socioeconomic crisis.

To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, we conducted a phone survey of 187 input retailers throughout the country in August 2023. Key Findings • Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022. • Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022. • The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs. • Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs. • More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high. • The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels. Looking Forward • Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production. • However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons. • More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.

New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.