Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.

Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient. Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.

This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of farm commercialization in Myanmar after the dry season of 2022. The results are based on data from a phone survey – the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) – that was conducted with 5,021 crop farmers in all states/regions of the country in Q3 of 2022. This note assesses the perceived security situation of crop farmers, agricultural input availability and prices, prices of major crops at the farm level, changes in income from crop sales, and overall crop marketing challenges.

Myanmar’s agrifood system has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of multiple crises—COVID 19, the military coup, economic mismanagement, global price instability, and widespread conflict—with respect to production and exports. Household welfare has not been resilient, however. High rates of inflation, especially food price inflation, have resulted in dietary degradation across all house hold groups, especially those dependent on casual wage labor. Among household members, young children experience the highest rates of inadequate dietary quality. Expanded social protection to improve access to better-quality diets for vulnerable households and individuals is therefore needed. Beyond the current political crisis, increased public and private investment in a more efficient and dynamic agrifood system should be a high priority. This will help drive down poverty rates and ensure access to healthy diets in the near term, while laying the foundation for sustained growth and structural transformation of the economy.

Crop traders comprise the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chain and serve as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Thus, frictions and disruptions in the mid-stream caused by political instability and COVID-19 will likely affect farmers through market access and crop prices and urban consumers through food prices. This Research Note presents results from a telephone survey of 456 crop traders from 122 townships in 14 states/regions conducted between March 24 and April 4, 2022 (Figure 1). We use a broad definition of traders that includes wholesalers that buy, store, grade, and sell commodities as well as brokers that facilitate crop sales on commissions and we separate the two types in the analysis below. The March survey is a continuation of a panel survey that has completed 7 rounds since May 2020. In this round, we expanded the sample to achieve a higher number of observations and wider geographic coverage. This note presents a snapshot of the crop trading segment of Myanmar’s food supply chain one year after the political instability initiated in February 2021. The objectives of the survey were (i) to continue to track key disruptions to crop trade such as continued surges in transport costs and increased fuel prices; (ii) to provide detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders, and (iii) to collect price data and trading volumes for major crops. To understand changes since the coup, we asked traders to recall information on employment, trading volumes, crop prices, and transportation from the same time last year (March 2021). We compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021 for the analysis, and findings are shown as percent changes.

To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s crop trade sector, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in September 2021. Key Findings The most significant disruptions to crop trading in September were in banking and transportation. Sixty percent of respondents reported higher transportation costs and 47 percent reported difficulties making and receiving payments for crops, respectively. Sixty-one percent of traders reported difficulties collecting repayment from farmers on credit lent out. Although over half the sample offered credit to farmers in the 2021 monsoon season, there was an 8 percent decline relative to the 2020 monsoon season. Overall, 82 percent of the credit lent to farmers has not yet been repaid and 37 percent of traders do not expect full repayment before the 2022 monsoon season. There was also a 9 percent decline in the share of traders taking credit in during the 2021 monsoon season (15 percent) relative to 2020 (24 percent) and 44 percent of the traders taking credit do not expect to fully repay these debts before the 2022 monsoon season. Sixty-three percent of traders reported lower overall trade volumes in September 2021 relative to the same time in 2020. For the main crop traded, average daily turnover was down by 5 percent and storage volumes were down by 6 percent. Hired transportation costs increased by an average of 23 percent relative to September 2020 and 56 percent of traders reported fewer trips to buy crops. Looking ahead If these hurdles persist into the monsoon marketing season, they will present challenges to farmers as they try to sell their harvests. Indeed, there are already signs of reduced marketing opportunities in September going into the harvest season. Removal of curfews and travel restrictions at each administrative level would lessen some of the marketing challenges. Delayed repayment of farmer credit combined with a heavy dependency on cash for transactions may lead to a cycle of reduced credit to farmers for winter and summer seasons.

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in April 2023 with a sample of 304 traders in 14 states and regions. Key Findings • Continuing trends from 2022, transportation disruptions and higher costs continue to be the most prevalent and the most impactful challenges facing crop traders in April 2023. Transport costs are 44 percent higher than a year ago and almost half of traders had difficulties accessing fuel, nearly doubling the share from one year prior. • In-person bank transfers have increased to 34 percent of crop sales, up from just 16 percent in 2022. However, average values of credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders increased by more than 10 percent from 2022. • Lastly, crop prices, already high in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, have continued an upward trend, with Myanmar price increases outpacing global markets. However, local trading margins (as percentages of sales prices) have declined slightly since 2021, signaling continued competitiveness in crop trading. Looking Ahead • High crop prices may encourage investment in productive inputs and area expansions, hopefully leading to secure production in the 2023 monsoon. Conversely, higher prices are a negative for consumers, and continued difficulties and increased costs in transport will lead to wider price gaps between farmers and consumers and negative welfare effects. • For traders, high prices necessitate greater working capital. Improving access to capital and alleviating banking restrictions will further improve trade efficiency. • Lastly, export markets continue to be important for Myanmar’s agrifood system as important marketing channels that can stabilize prices from domestic demand shocks. Increased export demand can also increase domestic prices, which is a negative for consumers. Policies introduced to track exports more closely and bolster foreign currency reserves may add frictions to international crop trade that have knock-on effects through crop value chains.