Guillermo Calvo, who foresaw the financial crisis that followed the devaluationn of Mexico's peso, has spent much of his career thinking beyond the conventional wisdom. In a quiet and understated way, Calvo has made seminal contributions to several major research areas in macroeconomics, particularly monetary policy, exchange rates, public debt, and stabilization in Latin America and post-communist countries. Money, Exchange Rates, and Output brings together these contributions in a broad selection of the author's work over the past two decades. There are introductions to each section, and an introduction to the entire collection that outlines the connections throughout and survey the current state of macroeconomic theory. Specific issues covered are predetermined exchange rates, currency substitution, domestic public debt and seigniorage, and stabilizing transition economics.

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Anticipated exchange rate depreciation, through the supply channel, has limited effects on output growth and inflation. Unanticipated currency fluctuations appear more significant, with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.

Exchange rate economics is an important field of investigation for academics, professionals and policy-makers. This book provides a comprehensive survey of the theory of and empirical evidence on the determination and effects of exchange rates. The exposition utilizes both diagrammatic and mathematical representations of the underlying models. The book is a comprehensive reference for those engaged in this field of research.

In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and empirics of exchange rate determination. Important developments in econometrics and the increasingly large availability of high-quality data have also been responsible for stimulating the large amount of empirical work on exchange rates in this period. Nonetheless, while our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a number of challenges and open questions remain in the exchange rate debate, enhanced by events including the launch of the Euro and the large number of recent currency crises. This volume provides a selective coverage of the literature on exchange rates, focusing on developments from within the last fifteen years. Clear explanations of theories are offered, alongside an appraisal of the literature and suggestions for further research and analysis.

This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era. The model predicts that a positive domestic money supply shock lowers the domestic nominal interest rate, that it raises output and that it leads to a nominal and real depreciation of the country’s currency. Increases in domestic labor productivity and in the world interest rate too are predicted to induce a nominal and real exchange rate depreciation.

Combining thorough scholarship with illuminating real-world examples, this edited collection provides insights on the causes and consequences of movements in both exchange rates and external assets and has a strong focus on the policy implications of operating in an open economy, particularly the choice of exchange rate and monetary policy, exchange rate intervention and policies on capital mobility.