Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error. The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.

A modified non-linear Monte Carlo methodology is developed to dramatically increase the accuracy of contingency development in complex project. It is achieved through counting of non-linear risk interactions in complex projects consistently that have been completely missed out by the traditional methods.

Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.

Risks can be identified, evaluated, and mitigated, but the underlying uncertainty remains elusive. Risk is present across all industries and sectors. As a result, organizations and governments worldwide are currently experiencing higher levels of risk and have had to make risky decisions during times of crisis and instability, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and climate perils, and global tensions surrounding terrorism. It is essential that new studies are undertaken to understand strategies taken during these times to better equip business leaders to navigate risk management in the future. Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis examines the impact of crises including the COVID-19 pandemic, which has tested organizational risk and contingency management plans. It provides significant insights that should benefit business leaders on risk and contingency management in times of crisis. It emphasizes strategies that leaders can undertake to identify potential future risks and examines decisions made in past crises that can act as examples of what to do and what not to do during future crisis events. Covering topics such as auditing theories, risk assessment, and educational inequality, this premier reference source is a crucial resource for business leaders, executives, managers, decision makers, policymakers, students, government officials, entrepreneurs, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.