This book is a survey of the research work done by the author over the last 15 years, in collaboration with various eminent mathematicians and climate scientists on the subject of tropical convection and convectively coupled waves. In the areas of climate modelling and climate change science, tropical dynamics and tropical rainfall are among the biggest uncertainties of future projections. This not only puts at risk billions of human beings who populate the tropical continents but it is also of central importance for climate predictions on the global scale. This book aims to introduce the non-expert readers in mathematics and theoretical physics to this fascinating topic in order to attract interest into this difficult and exciting research area. The general thyme revolves around the use of new deterministic and stochastic multi-cloud models for tropical convection and convectively coupled waves. It draws modelling ideas from various areas of mathematics and physics and used in conjunction with state-of-the-art satellite and in-situ observations and detailed numerical simulations. After a review of preliminary material on tropical dynamics and moist thermodynamics, including recent discoveries based on satellite observations as well as Markov chains, the book immerses the reader into the area of models for convection and tropical waves. It begins with basic concepts of linear stability analysis and ends with the use of these models to improve the state-of-the-art global climate models. The book also contains a fair amount of exercises that makes it suitable as a textbook complement on the subject.

This textbook introduces fundamental dynamics of tropical atmosphere and ocean useful for advanced graduate courses in atmospheric and climate sciences. It presents an overview of simple atmospheric and oceanic models, as well as the observed phenomena associated with major climate modes in the tropics. It provides students with an up-to-date understanding of the dynamics of tropical climate and weather phenomena. A particular focus is given to scale interactions and atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with tropical mean climate (such as ITCZ asymmetry and annual cycles), synoptic-scale variability (such as synoptic wave trains, easterly waves and tropical cyclones), intraseasonal oscillations (such as Madden-Julian Oscillation and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation), and interannual variability (such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole). Theoretical and conceptual models are presented for better understanding of physical mechanisms behind the observational phenomena. This book aims to motivate graduate students in atmospheric sciences and oceanography by providing them with the key methods and tools necessary to conduct research.

This edited collection of works by leading climate scientists and philosophers introduces readers to issues in the foundations, evaluation, confirmation, and application of climate models. It engages with important topics directly affecting public policy, including the role of doubt, the use of satellite data, and the robustness of models. Climate Modelling provides an early and significant contribution to the burgeoning Philosophy of Climate Science field that will help to shape our understanding of these topics in both philosophy and the wider scientific context. It offers insight into the reasons we should believe what climate models say about the world but addresses the issues that inform how reliable and well-confirmed these models are. This book will be of interest to students of climate science, philosophy of science, and of particular relevance to policy makers who depend on the models that forecast future states of the climate and ocean in order to make public policy decisions.

This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

The first edition of my book "Climate and Circulation of the Tropics" was reasonably up to date to the middle of 1985. In a second printing in 1988 it was possible to complete a few literature references and to correct some misprints. However, vigorous research has taken place over the past five years in various areas of tropical climate dynamics, especially in the atmosphere-ocean mechanisms of climate anomalies, climate prediction, ocean circulation, and paleoclimates. Promising progress has also been made in the application of general circulation modelling to tropical climate problems. In the present second edition, named "Climate Dynamics of the Tropics", I have attempted to incorporate much of the recent work to late 1990. Chapters 8 and 9 have been essentially re-written, and major additions have been made to Chapters 4 and 12 in particular. I would like to acknowledge the continued support by the U.S. National Science Foundation over the past five years. B. Parthasarathy, Poona, and H. Lessmann, San Salvador, sent me updates of data series not easily accessible. I have benefitted from discussions with numerous colleagues in the United States and overseas. In the preparation of this second edition, Marilyn Wolff patiently transferred my illegible hand-written drafts onto word processor. Dierk Polzin and Dan Skemp assisted me with the creation of the page masters and the subject index and Christopher Collimore with the author index.

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 189. Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary? presents the major climate phenomena within the climate system to underscore the potency of dynamics in giving rise to climate change and variability. These phenomena include deep convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and its planetary-scale organization: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the monsoons, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the low-frequency variability of extratropical circulations. The volume also has a chapter focusing on the discussion of the causes of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice and a chapter devoted to the discussion of the causes of recent changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. On each topic, the basic material of climate dynamics is covered to aid the understanding of the forefront research, making the volume accessible to a broad spectrum of readers. The volume highlights include Diabatic and nonlinear aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Causes of sea ice melting in the Arctic Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone activity Origins of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Causes of climate variability of Asian monsoons The volume will be of particular interest to graduate students and young researchers in atmospheric and oceanic sciences and related disciplines such as geology and geography. The book will also be a good read for those who have a more general interest in the Earth's climate and why it varies.