The paper addresses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita output and income, with particular emphasis on the role of labor mobility between the formal and informal sectors, and the impact of the epidemic on investment decisions. The study finds that HIV/AIDS affects both the supply of labor and the demand for labor in the formal sector. Only if there is a significant rise in the capital-labor ratio, will there be an increase in formal sector employment. However, this is associated with a decline in the rate of return to capital. To the extent that companies respond to this by reducing investment, conventional models underestimate the adverse impact on employment, per capita output, and income. The analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on output is complemented by an assessment of the impact on income.

The security issues which have come into prominence since the September 11 terrorist attack in the USA provide both the starting point and the focus for this comprehensive survey of contemporary security issues in the Caribbean. This volume assesses the impact of the 9/11 terrorist attack on Caribbean states and examines the institutional and operational terrorism response capacity of security agencies in the region. However, understanding security challenge and change in the Caribbean context requires a broad-based multidimensional approach; terrorism for the small, open and vulnerable nation states of the Caribbean region is a real security issue but even more so, is a range of untraditional threats like crime, drug trafficking, territorial disputes, environmental degradation and the rapid spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. How these states adapt policies and practices to adjust to the new regional and global circumstances represent the challenge and the change.

HIV/AIDS continues to take a tremendous toll on the populations of many countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In some countries with high HIV prevalence rates, life expectancy has declined by more than a decade and in a few cases by more than two decades. Even in countries with HIV prevalence of around 5 percent (close to the average for sub-Saharan Africa), the epidemic can reverse gains in life expectancy and other health outcomes achieved over one or two decades. This volume highlights work conducted under the umbrella of a World Bank work program on “The Fiscal Dimension of HIV/AIDS,” including country studies on Botswana, South Africa, Swaziland, and Uganda. It covers four aspects of the fiscal dimensions of HIV/AIDS: First, it aims for a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal costs of HIV/AIDS, with a wider scope than a costing analysis focusing on only the policy response to HIV/AIDS. Second, it embeds the analysis of HIV/AIDS costs in a discussion of the fiscal context, and interprets these costs as a quasi-liability, not a debt de jure, but a political and fiscal commitment that binds fiscal resources in the future and cannot easily be changed, and very similar to a pension obligation or certain social grants or services. Third, it develops tools to assess the (fiscal dimensions of) trade-offs between HIV/AIDS policies and measures that take into account the persistence of these spending commitments. Fourth, most of the fiscal costs of HIV/AIDS are ultimately caused by new infections, and this study estimates the fiscal resources committed (or saved) by an additional (or prevented) HIV infection. Building on these estimates, the analysis here is able to assess the evolving fiscal burden of HIV/AIDS over time.

It is estimated that by the end of 2003 there were just under 38 million people living with HIV/AIDS, with all but two million of these people of working age. This report, prepared by the ILO Programme on HIV/AIDS and the World of Work, sets out global estimates of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the labour force and the working age population in 50 countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and in more developed regions. Issues discussed include: the implications for the private and public sectors, on agriculture and concerns for food insecurity and on the informal economy; on women and children; policy implications and examples of responses to the problem in a variety of workplace settings; provision of antiretroviral therapy in conjunction with HIV prevention in the workplace and the potential for expanded access to workplace-based treatment.