Modeling the economic effect of changes in tax policy : hearing before the Subcommittee on Oversight of the Committee on Ways and Means, House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, second session, May 7, 2002.

This book reports the authors' research on one of the most sophisticated general equilibrium models designed for tax policy analysis. Significantly disaggregated and incorporating the complete array of federal, state, and local taxes, the model represents the U.S. economy and tax system in a large computer package. The authors consider modifications of the tax system, including those being raised in current policy debates, such as consumption-based taxes and integration of the corporate and personal income tax systems. A counterfactual economy associated with each of these alternatives is generated, and the possible outcomes are compared.

The Economic Impacts of Tax—Transfer Policy: Regional and Distributional Effects deals with evaluating proposed income-transfer policies through tax modeling. The book analyzes the direct and indirect effects of two variants of a negative income tax plan. These are the standard negative income tax and the Family Assistance Plan. By studying the indirect effects of income-maintenance programs on industries, occupations, and different regions, the authors point to understanding the effectiveness of alternative income-maintenance programs. Proposed changes in national taxes and transfer policies aim to achieve income redistribution. In their studies and models, the authors noted that the full impact of these tax policies throughout the income spectra covering different income classes, industries, occupations, and regions is different from that gathered from observations involving the direct effects of these schemes. The authors cite some policy implications resulting from their study, such as the redistributional impacts of direct tax-transfer scheme are not as efficient as expected and that increasing the demand for low-skilled workers and improving their job qualities is one way of improving income distribution. The text is valuable for economists and government policymakers in the finance and labor sectors, as well as for sociologists and political economists.

This paper assesses the macroeconomic and distributional impact of personal income tax (PIT) reforms in the U.S. drawing on a multi-sector heterogenous agents model in which consumers have non-homothetic preferences and sectors differ in terms of their relative labor and skill intensity. The model is calibrated to key characteristics of the US economy. We find that (i) PIT cuts stimulate growth but the supply side effects are never large enough to offset the revenue loss from lower marginal tax rates; (ii) PIT cuts do “trickle-down” the income distribution: tax cuts stimulate demand for non-tradable services which raise the wages and employment prospects of low-skilled workers even if the tax cut is not directly incident on them; (iii) A revenue neutral tax plan that reduces PIT for middle-income groups, raises the consumption tax, and expands the Earned Income Tax Credit can have modestly positive effects on growth while reducing income polarization; (iv) The growth effects from lower income taxes are concentrated in non-tradable service sectors although the increased demand for tradable goods generate positive spillovers to other countries; (v) Tax cuts targeted to higher income groups have a stronger growth impact than tax cuts for middle income households but significantly worsen income polarization, even after taking into account trickle-down effects and an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit.

The paper studies the dynamic allocation effects of tax policy in the context of an overlapping generations model of the Blanchard-Yaari type. The model is extended to allow for endogenous labor supply and three tax instruments: a capital income tax, labor income tax, and consumption tax. Analytical expressions and simple diagrams are used to discuss the impact, transition, and long-run effects of tax policy changes. It is shown that a part of the long-run incidence of capital and consumption taxes falls on capital when households’ horizons are finite, whereas labor would fully bear the burden of these taxes in an infinite horizon model.

Alberto Heimler and Daniele Meulders In the last decade the modelling of the interrelationship between public finance and the rest of the economy has seen substantial advances, reflected in many of the papers delivered to the Applied Econometrics Association Conference held at Confindustria, Rome, on 30 November and 1 December 1989. In particular, the development of the literature on applied general-equilibrium modelling has found most of its applications in the field of taxation, enlarging and completing the estimation of the welfare loss due to distortionary taxes. In this context an important extension has been the introduction of overlapping-generation models. Furthermore, it has become clear that most individual decisions, especially the decision whether or not to work, are dependent upon the tax system, in the sense that the higher the marginal income tax the larger the wedge between labour cost and take-home pay, the last one being the decision variable in the demand for leisure. Finally, in the European context, the completion of the internal market has brought about the necessity to harmonize fiscal systems in the EEC member countries. A number of papers study, therefore, the effects of fiscal reform on efficiency, welfare and growth.