This book reveals the hidden and potentially misleading nature of measurements, empowering readers to avoid making critical business decisions that are harmful, unreasonable, unwarranted, or plain wrong. Decision makers in business and government are more reliant than ever on measurements, such as business performance indicators, bond ratings, Six-Sigma indicators, stock ratings, opinion polls, and market research. Yet many popular statistical and business books and courses relating to measurement are based on flawed principles, leading managers to the wrong conclusions—and ultimately, the wrong decisions. misLeading Indicators: How to Reliably Measure Your Business provides something unique and invaluable: trustworthy tools for judging measurements. Each chapter illustrates the four key principles for reliable measurements: sufficient background information, accuracy and precision, reasonable inferences, and reality checks in different situations. After the three fundamental methods of measuring are defined, the authors expand to the application and interpretation of measurements in specific areas, including business performance, risk management, process, control, finance, and economics. This book supplies essential information for managers in business and government who depend on accurate information to run their organizations, as well as the consultants who advise them.

This book reveals the hidden and potentially misleading nature of measurements, empowering readers to avoid making critical business decisions that are harmful, unreasonable, unwarranted, or plain wrong. Decision makers in business and government are more reliant than ever on measurements, such as business performance indicators, bond ratings, Six-Sigma indicators, stock ratings, opinion polls, and market research. Yet many popular statistical and business books and courses relating to measurement are based on flawed principles, leading managers to the wrong conclusions—and ultimately, the wrong decisions. misLeading Indicators: How to Reliably Measure Your Business provides something unique and invaluable: trustworthy tools for judging measurements. Each chapter illustrates the four key principles for reliable measurements: sufficient background information, accuracy and precision, reasonable inferences, and reality checks in different situations. After the three fundamental methods of measuring are defined, the authors expand to the application and interpretation of measurements in specific areas, including business performance, risk management, process, control, finance, and economics. This book supplies essential information for managers in business and government who depend on accurate information to run their organizations, as well as the consultants who advise them.

How did we come by the “leading indicators” we place such stock in? We allocate trillions of dollars and make public policy and personal decisions based upon them, but what do they really tell us? “The leading indicators” shape our lives intimately, but few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule the world. GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade, and a host of averages determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s future and our own. They dictate whether businesses hire and invest, or fire and hunker down, whether governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, whether individuals marry, buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job. Zachary Karabell tackles the history and the limitations of each of our leading indicators. The solution is not to invent new indicators, but to become less dependent on a few simple figures and tap into the data revolution. We have unparalleled power to find the information we need, but only if we let go of the outdated indicators that lead and mislead us.

Public polls are contaminated by measurement error and therefore misleading. In this book, authors use multiple case studies to document fundamental problems facing scholars, journalists, policy makers and anyone else who relies on public opinion polling.

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.