The mid-Atlantic coastal plain, where the FSP is located, has higher than average variability in corn and soybean yields compared to the most productive agricultural regions in the US. Precipitation is the primary driver of crop yield variability in this region and drought is often responsible for low yields.

Weather during the growing season is critical for corn and soybean yields. Adjusting for weather in an analysis of historical U.S. corn and soybean yields is important for determining underlying trends and future yield expectations. Models for U.S. corn and soybean yields provide estimates of the effects of weather on yields for those crops, allowing an analysis of those effects to be used to derive weather-adjusted trend yields. The corn model also includes planting progress by the middle of May. The estimated models indicate that reductions in precipitation below its average result in larger declines in yields than the gains in yields resulting from increases in precipitation of equal magnitudes above its average. The yield models are used to track effects of high temperatures and drought on U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2012 and to provide estimates for expected 2013 yields. Further, the models provide a framework for assessing changes in expected yields due to planting progress and weather developments. Figures and tables. This is a print on demand report.